Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

  title={Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles},
  author={Nicola Scafetta},
  journal={Earth-Science Reviews},
  • N. Scafetta
  • Published 5 October 2013
  • Environmental Science
  • Earth-Science Reviews
Testing the CMIP6 GCM Simulations versus Surface Temperature Records from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021: High ECS Is Not Supported
The last-generation CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) are currently used to interpret past and future climatic changes and to guide policymakers, but they are very different from each other; for
Attribution analysis for the failure of CMIP5 climate models to simulate the recent global warming hiatus
The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) contains a group of state-of-the-art climate models and represents the highest level of climate simulation thus far. However, these models
Detection of non‐climatic biases in land surface temperature records by comparing climatic data and their model simulations
The 0.6 °C warming observed in global temperature datasets from 1940 to 1960 to 2000–2020 can be partially due to urban heat island (UHI) and other non-climatic biases in the underlying data,
Clarifying the Roles of Greenhouse Gases and ENSO in Recent Global Warming through Their Prediction Performance
AbstractIt is well known that natural external forcings and decadal-to-millennial variability drove changes in the climate system throughout the Holocene. Regarding recent times, attribution studies
Multi‐decadal evolution characteristics of global surface temperature anomaly data shown by observation and CMIP5 models
Based on methods of statistical analysis, the time series of global surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies from 1860 to 2014 has been defined by three types of phase changes that occur through the
Major Climate Variability and Natural Factors in Boreal Winter
  • Indrani Roy
  • Environmental Science
    Pure and Applied Geophysics
  • 2020
The role of natural factors, mainly solar 11-year cyclic variability and volcanic eruptions on two major modes of climate variability the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern
On the influence of solar cycle lengths and carbon dioxide on global temperatures
  • R. Booth
  • Environmental Science
    Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
  • 2018
The coming cooling: Usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s climate is the result of
Satellite bulk tropospheric temperatures as a metric for climate sensitivity
We identify and remove the main natural perturbations (e.g. volcanic activity, ENSOs) from the global mean lower tropospheric temperatures (TLT) over January 1979 - June 2017 to estimate the
Spectral coherence between climate oscillations and the M ≥ 7 earthquake historical worldwide record
We compare the NOAA Significant Earthquake Historical database versus typical climatic indices and the length of the day (LOD). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) record is mainly adopted because


Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms
Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background
Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This
Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years
It is shown that distinct, ∼55- to 70-year oscillations characterized the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability over the past 8,000 years, and that the coupling from the AMO to regional climate conditions was modulated by orbitally induced shifts in large-scale ocean- atmosphere circulation.
Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record
We study the solar impact on 400 years of a global surface temperature record since 1600. This period includes the pre‐industrial era (roughly 1600–1800 or 1600–1900), when negligible amount of
Solar Arctic-Mediated Climate Variation on Multidecadal to Centennial Timescales: Empirical Evidence, Mechanistic Explanation, and Testable Consequences
Soon (2005) showed that the variable total solar irradiance (TSI) could explain, rather surprisingly, well over 75% of the variance for the decadally smoothed Arctic-wide surface air temperature over
Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes
Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial
A tree‐ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D.
We present a tree‐ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which demonstrates that strong, low‐frequency (60–100 yr) variability in basin‐wide (0–70°N) sea surface
Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes
Herein I propose a multi-scale dynamical analysis to facilitate the physical interpretation of tide gauge records. The technique uses graphical diagrams. It is applied to six secular-long tide gauge