Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

  title={Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles},
  author={Nicola Scafetta},
  journal={Earth-Science Reviews},
  • N. Scafetta
  • Published 5 October 2013
  • Environmental Science
  • Earth-Science Reviews

Problems in Modeling and Forecasting Climate Change : CMIP 5 General Circulation Models versus a Semi-Empirical Model Based on Natural Oscillations

Since 1850 the global surface temperature has warmed by about 0.9 oC. The CMIP5 computer climate models adopted by the IPCC have projected that the global surface temperature could rise by 2-5 oC

Testing the CMIP6 GCM Simulations versus Surface Temperature Records from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021: High ECS Is Not Supported

The last-generation CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) are currently used to interpret past and future climatic changes and to guide policymakers, but they are very different from each other; for

Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature

Climate changes are due to anthropogenic factors, volcano eruptions and the natural variability of the Earth’s system. Herein the natural variability of the global surface temperature is modeled

Attribution analysis for the failure of CMIP5 climate models to simulate the recent global warming hiatus

The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) contains a group of state-of-the-art climate models and represents the highest level of climate simulation thus far. However, these models

Using Oscillatory Processes in Northern Hemisphere Proxy Temperature Records to Forecast Industrial-era Temperatures

  • J. Abbot
  • Environmental Science
    Earth Sciences
  • 2021
The validity and interpretation of differing representations of proxy temperature profiles from the past 2,000 years for the northern hemisphere remains controversial. One perspective of temperatures

Detection of non‐climatic biases in land surface temperature records by comparing climatic data and their model simulations

The 0.6 °C warming observed in global temperature datasets from 1940 to 1960 to 2000–2020 can be partially due to urban heat island (UHI) and other non-climatic biases in the underlying data,

Clarifying the Roles of Greenhouse Gases and ENSO in Recent Global Warming through Their Prediction Performance

AbstractIt is well known that natural external forcings and decadal-to-millennial variability drove changes in the climate system throughout the Holocene. Regarding recent times, attribution studies

Multi‐decadal evolution characteristics of global surface temperature anomaly data shown by observation and CMIP5 models

Based on methods of statistical analysis, the time series of global surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies from 1860 to 2014 has been defined by three types of phase changes that occur through the

CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 $${^\circ }$$ ∘

The Little Ice Age was 1.0–1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO

We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623–2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873–2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659–2000) and the global sea surface



Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms

Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background

Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications

Holocene Climate Variability on Centennial-to-Millennial Time Scales: 1. Climate Records from the North-Atlantic Realm

Holocene oxygen isotope data from the GISP2 ice core reveal temperature oscillations in Greenland with a periodicity of ~900 y, which can be correlated to climate perturbations in northern and

Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This

Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years

It is shown that distinct, ∼55- to 70-year oscillations characterized the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability over the past 8,000 years, and that the coupling from the AMO to regional climate conditions was modulated by orbitally induced shifts in large-scale ocean- atmosphere circulation.

Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record

We study the solar impact on 400 years of a global surface temperature record since 1600. This period includes the pre‐industrial era (roughly 1600–1800 or 1600–1900), when negligible amount of

Solar Arctic-Mediated Climate Variation on Multidecadal to Centennial Timescales: Empirical Evidence, Mechanistic Explanation, and Testable Consequences

Soon (2005) showed that the variable total solar irradiance (TSI) could explain, rather surprisingly, well over 75% of the variance for the decadally smoothed Arctic-wide surface air temperature over

Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes

Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial

A tree‐ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D.

We present a tree‐ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which demonstrates that strong, low‐frequency (60–100 yr) variability in basin‐wide (0–70°N) sea surface