Disappointment without prior expectation: a unifying perspective on decision under risk

  title={Disappointment without prior expectation: a unifying perspective on decision under risk},
  author={Philippe Delqui{\'e} and Alessandra Cillo},
  journal={Journal of Risk and Uncertainty},
The central idea of Disappointment theory is that an individual forms an expectation about a risky alternative, and may experience disappointment if the outcome eventually obtained falls short of the expectation. We abandon the hypothesis of a well-defined prior expectation: disappointment feelings may arise from comparing the outcome received with anyof the gamble’s outcomes that the individual failed to get. This leads to a new, general form of Disappointment model. It encompasses Rank… 
Expectations, Disappointment, and Rank-Dependent Probability Weighting
We develop a model of Disappointment in which disappointment and elation arise from comparing the outcome received, not with an expected value as in previous models, but rather with the other
Disappointment Models: an axiomatic approach
In this paper, a fully choice-based theory of disappointment is developed. It encompasses, as particular cases, EU theory, Gul's theory of disappointment (1991) and the models of Loomes and Sugden
Great Expectations: Prospect Theory with a Consistent Reference Point
This paper introduces a prospect theory model of risk preferences with an endogenously determined expectation that serves simultaneously as both the reference point for and the certainty equivalent
Eliciting Gul’s theory of disappointment aversion by the tradeoff method
Gul’s theory of disappointment aversion (DA) has several attractive features, being intuitive, analytically tractable, and parsimonious. In spite of this, the DA model has received little attention
A Structural Analysis of Disappointment Aversion in a Real Effort Competition
We develop a novel computerized real effort task, based on moving sliders across a screen, to test experimentally whether agents are disappointment averse when they compete in a real effort
Mean-risk analysis with enhanced behavioral content
A mean-risk model derived from a behavioral theory of Disappointment with multiple reference points that allows for richer, and behaviorally more plausible, risk preference patterns than competing models with equal degrees of freedom.
Stochastic dominance, risk and disappointment: a synthesis
In this article, utilities are substituted for monetary values in the definition of second order stochastic dominance (SSD). Doing so yields a family of preorders induced by SSD among which one is
Production theory under price uncertainty for firms with disappointment aversion
This paper studies the production theory of the competitive firm under price uncertainty by adopting four of the most well-established models of disappointment aversion. Our results show that a
Subjective risk and disappointment
If an investor does care for utilities -and not for monetary outcomes- stochastic dominances should be expressed in terms of utility units ("utils"). If so, any "rational" investor may be
A Theory of Decision-Making Under Risk as a Tradeoff between Expected Utility, Expected Utility Deviation and Expected Utility Skewness
This paper presents a new decision theory for modelling choice under risk. The new theory is a two-parameter generalization of expected utility theory. The proposed theory assumes that a decision


Disappointment and Dynamic Consistency in Choice under Uncertainty
The central proposition of disappointment theory is that an individual forms expectations about uncertain prospects, and that if the actual consequence turns out to be worse than (or better than)
Expectations, Disappointment, and Rank-Dependent Probability Weighting
We develop a model of Disappointment in which disappointment and elation arise from comparing the outcome received, not with an expected value as in previous models, but rather with the other
Generalized Disappointment Models
Abstract“Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed”—Benjamin FranklinBased on our risk-value framework, this paper presents extensions for the disappointment models that
A Theory of Disappointment Aversion
An axiomatic model of preferences over lotteries is developed. It is shown that this model is consistent with the Allais paradox, includes expected utility theory as a special case, and is only one
Disappointment in Decision Making Under Uncertainty
  • D. E. Bell
  • Economics, Computer Science
    Oper. Res.
  • 1985
The implications of disappointment, a psychological reaction caused by comparing the actual outcome of a lottery to one's prior expectations, for decision making under uncertainty, are explored and explicit recognition that decision makers may be paying a premium to avoid potential disappointment is provided.
Risk Premiums for Decision Regret
Some people find decision making under uncertainty difficult because they fear making the "wrong decision," wrong in the sense that the outcome of their chosen alternative proves to be worse than
Measures of Perceived Risk
Based on our previous work on the standard measure of risk, this paper presents two classes of measures for perceived risk by decomposing a lottery into its mean and standard risk. One of the classes
Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function
When individuals choose among risky alternatives, the psychological weight attached to an outcome may not correspond to the probability of that outcome. In rank-dependent utility theories, including
Decision Affect Theory: Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Risky Options
How do people feel about the outcomes of risky options? Results from two experiments demonstrate that the emotional reaction to a monetary outcome is not a simple function of the utility of that
Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
We develop a new version of prospect theory that employs cumulative rather than separable decision weights and extends the theory in several respects. This version, called cumulative prospect theory,