Differences in expert and lay judgments of risk: myth or reality?

  title={Differences in expert and lay judgments of risk: myth or reality?},
  author={G. M. Rowe and George A. Wright},
  journal={Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis},
  volume={21 2},
This article evaluates the nine empirical studies that have been conducted on expert versus lay judgments of risk. Contrary to received wisdom, this study finds that there is little empirical evidence for the propositions (1) that experts judge risk differently from members of the public or (2) that experts are more veridical in their risk assessments. Methodological weaknesses in the early research are documented, and it is shown that the results of more recent studies are confounded by social… CONTINUE READING

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