Giertz, and V
- D. BYERLEE, Å.A. GARCIA
of the paper The economic conditions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have dramatically improved since the late 1990s. Developing SSA has outpaced the world’s per capita average income growth by 25% and trailed only the income growth of East and Southern Asia during this time period. Together with continued rapid urbanization, this income growth will drive profound changes within the food system of SSA. This paper analyses current consumption patterns in East and Southern Africa and projects them to 2040. Projections are based on budget shares and expenditure elasticities estimated from Living Standard Measurement Survey data, and on United Nations rural and urban population projections. A key innovation in the analysis is the grouping of all food consumption items by level of processing, which allows food demand projections to be tied to projections regarding the evolving structure of the food system; a second grouping is based on 27 different food categories – far more than typically found in these analyses. All results are reported across nine growth scenarios and rural/urban areas. Results suggest a considerable diet shift away from raw staple grains and towards processed foods, paired with a dramatic increase in the total demand of marketed goods.