Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years ?

@inproceedings{Oldenborgh2005DidTE,
  title={Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years ?},
  author={Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Laura Ferranti and Timothy N. Stockdale and David Leech Anderson},
  year={2005}
}
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts since 1997 with ensembles of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (S1). In January 2002, a new version (S2) was introduced. For the calibration of these models, hindcasts have been performed starting in 1987, so that 15 years of hindcasts and forecasts are now available for verification. Seasonal predictability is to a large extent due to the El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate oscillations. ENSO… CONTINUE READING
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