Detecting and diagnosing prior and likelihood sensitivity with power-scaling
@inproceedings{Kallioinen2021DetectingAD, title={Detecting and diagnosing prior and likelihood sensitivity with power-scaling}, author={Noa Kallioinen and Topi Paananen and Paul-Christian Burkner and Aki Vehtari}, year={2021} }
Determining the sensitivity of the posterior to perturbations of the prior and likelihood is an important part of the Bayesian workflow. We introduce a practical and computationally efficient sensitivity analysis approach using importance sampling to estimate properties of posteriors resulting from power-scaling the prior or likelihood. On this basis, we suggest a diagnostic that can indicate the presence of prior-data conflict or likelihood noninformativity and discuss limitations to this power…
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