Decision-making under uncertainty: biases and Bayesians

@article{Trimmer2011DecisionmakingUU,
  title={Decision-making under uncertainty: biases and Bayesians},
  author={Pete C Trimmer and Alasdair Houston and James A R Marshall and Mike Mendl and Elizabeth Susan Paul and John M. McNamara},
  journal={Animal Cognition},
  year={2011},
  volume={14},
  pages={465-476}
}
Animals (including humans) often face circumstances in which the best choice of action is not certain. Environmental cues may be ambiguous, and choices may be risky. This paper reviews the theoretical side of decision-making under uncertainty, particularly with regard to unknown risk (ambiguity). We use simple models to show that, irrespective of pay-offs, whether it is optimal to bias probability estimates depends upon how those estimates have been generated. In particular, if estimates have… CONTINUE READING

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