• Corpus ID: 15006325

Deaths in English Lower Super Output Areas ( LSOA ) show patterns of very large shifts indicative of a novel recurring infectious event

  title={Deaths in English Lower Super Output Areas ( LSOA ) show patterns of very large shifts indicative of a novel recurring infectious event},
  author={Rodney P Jones},
Deaths in the UK and other Western countries show 12 month periods of unexplained and consistently higher deaths. Excess cold/heat or winter infectious outbreaks cannot explain why deaths would remain high for 12 months, and then suddenly shift back to a ‘normal’. This study looks at annual deaths (all-cause mortality) between 2001 and 2013 for males and females in over 32,000 English Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA). Some 40% of LSOA showed at least one instance of a year to year change… 
Year-to-year Variation of Deaths in English Small Areas, and the Interaction Between a Presumed Infectious Agent and Influenza in 2015
Deaths in England and Wales in 2015 showed the largest increase over the previous year seen in nearly 50 years. This was partly due to a seasonal influenza outbreak in late 2014 with deaths peaking
Unexplained periods of higher deaths contribute to marginal changes in health care demand and health insurance costs: International perspectives.
  • R. Jones
  • Medicine, Geography
    The International journal of health planning and management
  • 2019
This study demonstrates that the sudden increases in deaths also occur in 125 countries and occur at subnational geographies and confirms that the use of calendar year data can be misleading.
Outbreaks of a Presumed Infectious Pathogen Creating On/Off Switching in Deaths
A new type of infectious outbreak appears to have been identified, with the potential for a profound change in public health policy and the immune modifying virus cytomegalovirus can be circumstantially implicated.
A Presumed Infectious Event in England and Wales during 2014 and 2015 Leading to Higher Deaths in those with Neurological and Other Disorders
A potential interaction between this agent and an influenza outbreak in January of 2015 appears to have led to additional effects against those with Alzheimer’s and dementia and a period of higher deaths inconsistent with the effects of influenza alone.
The Demography Myth: How Demographic Forecasting Underestimates Hospital Admissions, and Creates the Illusion that Fewer Hospital Beds and Community-based bed Equivalents, will be Required in the Future
This Policy Article seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of demographic-based forecasting of future hospital admissions, and hence for hospital bed numbers, and finds strong evidence that it is the trend in the absolute number of deaths, rather than demography which drives most of the marginal changes in bed demand.
Trend in proportion of deaths occurring in hospital
Bed utilization in the last six months of life likewise varies considerably between health care systems and due to the cause of death (Rosenwax et al 2011).
Factors Influencing A & E Attendance, Admissions and Waiting Times at Two London Hospitals
A&E attendance at any hospital is a complex expression of a whole system, of which access to primary care by local residents is only a part of the bigger picture, and attendance rates were 50% higher in the most deprived areas compared to the very least deprived.
Hospital bed occupancy and deaths (all-cause mortality) in 2015
It is vitally important that health service planners and policy makers understand the fundamental mechanisms lying behind the expression of inpatient demand.
Complex Changes in Blood Biochemistry Revealed by a Composite Score Derived from Principal Component Analysis: Effects of Age, Patient Acuity, End of Life, Day-of Week, and Potential Insights into the Issues Surrounding the ‘Weekend’ Effect in Hospital Mortality
Variation in human blood biochemistry follows day-of-week patterns and responds to different conditions, age, and the acuity of the condition, adding further weight to the argument that weekend staffing levels, and proposed 7 day working patterns, do not take account of all the factors that contribute to a day- of-week variation in hospital mortality and morbidity.
Rising Emergency Admissions in the UK and the Elephant in the Room
Growth in emergency medical admissions in the UK is not following trends consistent with the assumed mechanisms of growth. Is ‘policy-based evidence’ ignoring the existence of very large outbreaks of


A Previously Uncharacterized Infectious-like Event Leading to Spatial Spread of Deaths Across England and Wales: Characteristics of the most Recent Event and a Time Series for Past Events.
The existence of a new type of infectious outbreak, with relatively slow spread, has been confirmed and is part of a longer time-series of outbreaks.
Unexplained infectious events leading to deaths and medical admissions
Twelve month period ending at to integrate health and social care (Jones, 2013a–b; 2014c; 2015b). It has been recently pointed out that emergency medical admissions do not grow as a continuous trend,
A time series of infectious-like events in Australia between 2000 and 2013 leading to extended periods of increased deaths (all-cause mortality) with possible links to increased hospital medical admissions
Background and aims: Trends in deaths and medical admissions in the UK and Europe show evidence for a series of infectious-like events. These events have been overlooked by traditional surveillance
The Unprecedented Growth in Medical Admissions in the UK: The Ageing Population or a Possible Infectious/Immune Aetiology?
Age banded trends since 2012/13 show evidence for age-specific patterns of growth which are similar to patterns in immunity arising from antigenic original sin, i.e. repeated priming of the immune system and consequent antibody landscapes arising from lifetime exposure to different strains of the same agent.
Influenza-like illness, deaths and health care costs
The emergence of a new influenza strain during 2014 meant that the influenza vaccine administered to the general public during that year was largely ineffective, Rod Jones Influenza-like illness, deaths and health care costs.
Infectious-Like Spread of an Agent Leading to Increased Medical Admissions and Deaths in Wigan (England), During 2011 and 2012
The pattern of increased admissions show evidence of saw-tooth behavior with age, which is indicative of ‘antigenic original sin’ and which has also been demonstrated for deaths in England and Wales during 2012.
Diagnoses, deaths and infectious outbreaks
Analysis of death within 90 days of admission to hospital during 2008/09 reveals that the majority of the excess deaths were associated with just 460 diagnoses, consistent with increased hospital admission following recurring events which appear to be outbreaks of a previously unannounced infectious agent.
Is Cytomegalovirus Involved in Recurring Periods of Higher Than Expected Death and Medical Admissions, Occurring as Clustered Outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres?
It is proposed that the ubiquitous herpes virus, cytomegalovirus (CMV), may in some way be associated with these outbreaks, and which conditions in particular would be affected.
Unexpected and disruptive changes in admissions associated with an infectious-like event experienced at a hospital in Berkshire, England around May of 2012.
A new type of infectious event is strongly implicated which appears to exert its clinical effects via some form of immune impairment and lead to a persistent infection in a very large acute hospital in Reading.