Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show

  title={Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show},
  author={T. Post and Martijn J. van den Assem and Guido Baltussen and Richard H. Thaler},
  journal={EFA 2006 Zurich Meetings (Archive)},
  • T. Post, Martijn J. van den Assem, +1 author Richard H. Thaler
  • Published 2008
  • Economics
  • EFA 2006 Zurich Meetings (Archive)
  • We examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular TV game show “Deal or No Deal” and related classroom experiments. Contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game. Risk aversion decreases after earlier expectations have been shattered by unfavorable outcomes or surpassed by favorable outcomes. Our results point to reference-dependent choice theories such as prospect theory, and… CONTINUE READING
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