Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show

@article{Post2008DealON,
  title={Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show},
  author={Thierry Post and Martijn J. van den Assem and Guido Baltussen and Richard H. Thaler},
  journal={EFA Submission Session (check box to submit to EFA 2006 Zurich Meeting)},
  year={2008}
}
We examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular TV game show “Deal or No Deal” and related classroom experiments. Contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game. Risk aversion decreases after earlier expectations have been shattered by unfavorable outcomes or surpassed by favorable outcomes. Our results point to reference-dependent choice theories such as prospect theory, and… Expand
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In this paper, we utilize data from the Australian version of the TV game show, ‘Deal or No Deal’, to explore risk aversion in a high real stakes setting. An attractive feature of this version of theExpand
Does Risk Aversion Vary with Decision‐Frame? An Empirical Test Using Recent Game Show Data
An aspect of prospect theory posits that decision-makers, when making decisions in the face of risk, make their decisions with respect to a pre-existing reference point or ‘frame’ (the statusquoExpand
Risk Attitudes in Large Stake Gambles: Evidence from a Game Show
This paper estimates the degree of risk aversion of contestants appearing on Vas o No Vas, the Mexican version of Deal or No Deal. We consider both dynamic agents who fully backward induct and myopicExpand
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