Darfur: rainfall and conflict

@article{Kevane2008DarfurRA,
  title={Darfur: rainfall and conflict},
  author={Michael Kevane and Leslie C. Gray},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  year={2008},
  volume={3},
  pages={034006}
}
  • M. KevaneL. Gray
  • Published 20 May 2008
  • Political Science
  • Environmental Research Letters
Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972–2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

On climate and conflict: Precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya

This study exploits a sudden and abrupt decline in precipitation of the long rains season in the Horn of Africa to analyze the possible link between climate change and violent armed conflict.

Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa

Previous research on environment and security has contested the existence, nature and significance of a climate driver of conflict. In this study, we have focused on small-scale conflict over East

Climate Wars? Assessing the Claim That Drought Breeds Conflict

Dominant climate models suggest that large parts of Africa will experience greater climatic variability and increasing rates of drought in coming decades. This could have severe societal

Examining the relationship between environmental factors and conflict in pastoralist areas of East Africa.

Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict

Until recently, most writings on the relationship between climate change and security were highly speculative. The IPCC assessment reports to date offer little if any guidance on this issue and

Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Much of the literature on climate change adaptation claims the destabilizing consequences of environmental crises are mitigated by sociopolitical conditions that influence a state's susceptibility to

Does Climate Change Lead to Conflicts in the Sahel

A dominant narrative in international politics and media presentations holds that there is a close connection between climate change and conflicts, especially conflicts involving pastoralists in the
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 39 REFERENCES

Trends and discontinuities in regional rainfall of West and Central Africa: 1951–1989

Abstract Standardized regional mean annual rainfall series are analysed over the period 1951–1989 from a data set of 891 rainfall stations which covers 23 countries of West and Central Africa.

Changing rainfall patterns in Western Sudan

Rainfall series to 1986 have been examined for North Darfur and North Kordofan. Annual and monthly series are presented and analysed. Relatively dry conditions have persisted in this region since

Climatic and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries

Climatic and environmental changes in Africa during the last 2 centuries have been examined, using both systematic rainfall records and proxy information concerning lakes and rivers and the

Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973–1998

Regime Shifts in the Sahara and Sahel: Interactions between Ecological and Climatic Systems in Northern Africa

The Sahara and Sahel regions of northern Africa have complex environmental histories punctuated by sudden and dramatic “regime shifts” in climate and ecological conditions. Here we review the current

Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982–1999

Pathfinder AVHRR NDVI data have been analyzed for the African Sahel to study recent trends in vegetation greenness. A strong increase in seasonal NDVI was observed over large areas in the Sahel

Investigating vegetation changes in the African Sahel 1982-2002: a comparative analysis using Landsat, MODIS and AVHRR remote sensing data

There has been much debate concerning the concept of degradation and desertification in semi-arid lands, in particular semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa, during the last two decades. However, recent

Desertification in the Sahel: a reinterpretation of a reinterpretation

In semiarid regions the ratio of annual net primary production to precipitation, rain‐use efficiency (RUE), has been used as an index of desertification. In a recent publication ( Hein & de Ridder,

Adapting to Drought: Farmers, Famines and Desertification in West Africa

This book embodies the results of thirteen years of research in drought-prone rural areas in the semi-arid zone of northern Nigeria. It describes the patterns of adaptive behaviour observed among