Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

  title={Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19},
  author={Piers M. Forster and Harriet I. Forster and Mathew J. Evans and Matthew J. Gidden and Chris D. Jones and Christoph A. Keller and Robin D. Lamboll and Corinne Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e} and Joeri Rogelj and Deborah Rosen and C. F. Schleussner and Thomas B. Richardson and Christopher J. Smith and Steven T. Turnock},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NO x emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO 2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect… 
Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate
Estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate and demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact.
The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP
Many nations responded to the corona virus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse
Changes in China's anthropogenic emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns led to a sharp drop in socio-economic activities in China in 2020, including reductions in fossil fuel use, industry productions, and traffic volumes. The
Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes
A set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting and a low energy demand recovery that reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies is presented.
Climate Impacts of COVID‐19 Induced Emission Changes
The COVID‐19 pandemic led to dramatic changes in economic activity in 2020. We use estimates of emission changes for 2020 in two Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate the impacts of the COVID‐19
COVID-19 induced lower-tropospheric ozone changes
The recent COVID-19 pandemic with its countermeasures, e.g. lock-downs, resulted in decreases in emissions of various trace gases. Here we investigate the changes of ozone over Europe associated with
Global patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19
Day-to-day changes in CO2 emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather
Changes in China's anthropogenic emissions and air quality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020
The anthropogenic air pollutant emissions from mainland China are reported by using a bottom-up approach based on the near-real-time data in 2020 and use the estimated emissions to simulate air quality changes with a chemical transport model.
The Climate Impact of COVID19 Induced Contrail Changes
Abstract. The COVID19 pandemic caused significant economic disruption in 2020 and severely impacted air traffic. We use a state of the art Earth System Model and ensembles of tightly constrained
The COVID-19 crisis and its consequences for global warming and climate change


COVID-19 causes record decline in global CO2 emissions
The considerable cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global energy use and CO2 emissions. Here we show the unprecedented decrease in global fossil CO2 emissions
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement
Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their
Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops
It is suggested that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lock-down in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations and positive impacts on crop yields and exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions.
Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions
Under near-term warming, it is found that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing, and higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, over the major aerosol emission regions.
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively
Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions
This study assesses near-term future changes in temperature extremes over China and Europe in scenarios with two very different anthropogenic aerosol (AA) pathways from 2016 to 2049: a maximum
Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in
The impact of future emission policies on tropospheric ozone using a parameterised approach
Abstract. This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O3) using a simple parameterisation of source–receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in
Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels
It is shown that more realistic modelling scenarios do not produce a substantial near-term increase in either the magnitude or the rate of warming, and in fact can lead to a decrease in warming rates within two decades of the start of the fossil-fuel phase-out.
FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model
Abstract. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of