Covid19: Unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire
@article{Muscillo2020Covid19UO, title={Covid19: Unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire}, author={Alessio Muscillo and Paolo Pin and Tiziano Razzolini}, journal={PLoS ONE}, year={2020}, volume={15} }
The diffusion of Covid-19 has called governments and public health authorities to interventions aiming at limiting new infections and containing the expected number of critical cases and deaths. Most of these measures rely on the compliance of people, who are asked to reduce their social contacts to a minimum. In this note we argue that individuals’ adherence to prescriptions and reduction of social activity may not be efficacious if not implemented robustly on all social groups, especially on…
14 Citations
Organizational measures aiming to combat COVID-19 in the Russian Federation: the first experience
- MedicineExpert review of pharmacoeconomics & outcomes research
- 2020
Several measures were applied, nevertheless, creating an adequate response to the COVID-19 pandemic was 15 a challenge for the Russian national public health authorities.
Corona Viruses: A Review on SARS, MERS and COVID-19
- MedicineMicrobiology insights
- 2021
The paper will contain a detailed examination of the COVID-19 Pandemic which appears to be the only one with a pandemic potential and can be transmitted through airborne droplets.
Epidemic outbreaks with adaptive prevention on complex networks
- Medicine
- 2022
It is observed that increasing the local perception rate leads to less individuals recruited to the protected state, but still enhances the effectiveness in mitigating the outbreak, and network heterogeneity substantially reduces the effectiveness of local awareness mechanisms.
When Do We Need Massive Computations to Perform Detailed COVID‐19 Simulations?
- Computer ScienceAdvanced theory and simulations
- 2022
Whether a machine learning model can be trained on a small subset of simulation runs to inexpensively predict future disease trajectories resembling the original simulation results is examined and meta‐models for ABMs employing strong interventions require much more training data to achieve a similar accuracy.
ENDOGENOUS SOCIAL DISTANCING AND CONTAINMENT POLICIES IN SOCIAL NETWORKS
- EconomicsNational Institute Economic Review
- 2021
It is argued that crowding out is a problem when the probability that an outbreak may spread undetected is relatively high (either because testing is too infrequent or because tests are highly inaccurate) and the case where the choice of relaxing social distancing generates the largest negative externalities.
Effect of delayed awareness and fatigue on the efficacy of self-isolation in epidemic control.
- MedicinePhysical review. E
- 2021
It is found that the epidemic threshold is very sensitive to an effective compliance that combines the effects of imperfect adherence, delayed awareness and fatigue, and if adherence improves for shorter quarantine periods, there exists an optimal duration of isolation, shorter than the infectious period.
Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19.
- Computer ScienceScientific reports
- 2021
An extension of the epidemiological SEIR model is proposed to enable a detailed analysis of commonly discussed tailored measures of epidemic control-among them group-specific protection and the use of tracing apps.
Promoting social distancing in a pandemic: Beyond good intentions
- PsychologyPloS one
- 2021
A randomised controlled trial in Denmark to test different versions of a reminder to stay home at the beginning of the crisis finds that the reminder increases ex-ante intentions to comply when it emphasises the consequences of non-compliance for the subjects themselves and their families, while it has no effect when the emphasis is on other people or the country as a whole.
References
SHOWING 1-10 OF 12 REFERENCES
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
- MedicineThe Lancet
- 2020
Socio-Demographic Factors Associated with Self-Protecting Behavior During the Covid-19 Pandemic
- Economics
- 2020
Disease spread is in part a function of individual behavior. We examine the factors predicting individual behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States using novel data collected by…
Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study
- MedicineThe Lancet Infectious Diseases
- 2020
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
- MedicineScience
- 2020
The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading
- MathematicsPhysical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
- 2011
In this model, the susceptible-infected-recovered model in the presence of quarantine is analyzed, and it is shown that in this model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation and that w(c) increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of thenetwork.
Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks.
- MathematicsPhysical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
- 2001
A dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks that implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess.
Dynamic stability of an SIQS epidemic network and its optimal control
- MathematicsCommun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul.
- 2019
Social and Economic Networks
- 2008