Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations

  title={Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations},
  author={Will M. Farr and Jonathan R. Gair and Ilya Mandel and Curt Cutler},
  journal={Physical Review D},
We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works well even if the foreground and background event distributions overlap significantly and the nature of any individual event cannot be determined with any certainty. We give examples of determining the rates of gravitational-wave events in the presence of… 
Systematic errors in estimation of gravitational-wave candidate significance
We investigate a critical issue in determining the statistical significance of candidate transient gravitationalwave events in a ground-based interferometer network. Given the presence of
Gravitational wave detection without boot straps: A Bayesian approach
In order to separate astrophysical gravitational-wave signals from instrumental noise, which often contains transient non-Gaussian artifacts, astronomers have traditionally relied on bootstrap
Gravitational-wave inference in the catalog era: Evolving priors and marginal events
As the number of gravitational-wave transient detections grows, the inclusion of marginally significant events in gravitational-wave catalogs will lead to increasing contamination from false
Extracting distribution parameters from multiple uncertain observations with selection biases
We derive a Bayesian framework for incorporating selection effects into population analyses. We allow for both measurement uncertainty in individual measurements and, crucially, for selection biases
Estimation of the sensitive volume for gravitational-wave source populations using weighted Monte Carlo integration
  • V. Tiwari
  • Physics
    Classical and Quantum Gravity
  • 2018
The population analysis and estimation of merger rates of compact binaries is one of the important topics in gravitational wave astronomy. The primary ingredient in these analyses is the
Digging the population of compact binary mergers out of the noise
Coalescing compact binaries emitting gravitational wave (GW) signals, as recently detected by the Advanced LIGO-Virgo network, constitute a population over the multi-dimensional space of component
Time-dependence of the astrophysical stochastic gravitational wave background
The astrophysical stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) is mostly produced from unresolved stellar binary mergers, and the number of events at any moment of time is expected to be
Parallelized inference for gravitational-wave astronomy
This work demonstrates speed-ups of more than 50% for compact binary coalescence gravitational waveform generation and likelihood evaluation, and more than more than 100 for population inference within the lifetime of current detectors, and reports on progress porting gravitational-wave inference calculations to GPUs.
Unmodelled clustering methods for gravitational wave populations of compact binary mergers
The mass and spin distributions of compact binary gravitational-wave sources are currently uncertain due to complicated astrophysics involved in their formation. Multiple sub-populations of compact
Observing Gravitational Waves with a Single Detector
A major challenge of any search for gravitational waves is to distinguish true astrophysical signals from those of terrestrial origin. Gravitational-wave experiments therefore make use of multiple


The LIGO Scientific Collaboration
A listing of members of the LIGO Scientific Collaboration is given in the PDF file.
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