Counterfactuals and Two Kinds of Expected Utility

@inproceedings{Gibbard1978CounterfactualsAT,
  title={Counterfactuals and Two Kinds of Expected Utility},
  author={Allan Gibbard and William Harper},
  year={1978}
}
We begin with a rough theory of rational decision-making. In the first place, rational decision-making involves conditional propositions: when a person weighs a major decision, it is rational for him to ask, for each act he considers, what would happen if he performed that act. It is rational, then, for him to consider propositions of the form ‘If I were to do a, then c would happen’. Such a proposition we shall call a counterfactual, and we shall form counterfactuals with a connective ‘☐→' on… Expand
Bayesian Subjunctive Conditionals for Games and Decisions
The theory of rational decision has always been implicitly involved with subjunctive and counterfactual conditionals. “If I were to do A, this would happen; if I were to do B that would happen. ”Expand
Decision Theory, Intelligent Planning and Counterfactuals
  • M. Shaffer
  • Mathematics, Computer Science
  • Minds and Machines
  • 2008
TLDR
It will be argued that Bayesian, or evidential, decision-theoretic characterizations of decision situations fail to adequately account for knowledge concerning the causal connections between acts, states, and outcomes in decision situations, and so they are incomplete. Expand
The Gibbard-Harper Collapse Lemma for Counterfactual Decision Theory∗
There is a problem for the debate between causal decision theory, formulated in terms of counterfactuals, and its traditional rival, evidential decision theory: an agent’s credences inExpand
Non-Nietzschean Decision Making
TLDR
Both of the defences suggested to protect evidential decision theory from the kinds of counterexamples are unjustifiable as normative criteria for rationality and would so restrict the application of decision theory that its interest as a guide to life would be almost completely erased. Expand
Can Free Choice Be Known
In this note we reconsider an argument, borrowed from causal decision theory, according to which rational and identical players should cooperate in a one-shot prisoner's dilemma. We argue that,Expand
Plans And Decisions
Counterexamples are constructed for classical decision theory, turning on the fact that actions must often be chosen in groups rather than individually, i.e., the objects of rational choice areExpand
Binding and its consequences
In “Bayesianism, Infinite Decisions, and Binding”, Arntzenius et al. (Mind 113:251–283, 2004) present cases in which agents who cannot bind themselves are driven by standard decision theory to chooseExpand
Counterfactual reasoning ( philosophical aspects ) — quantitative
(Philosophical Aspects)—Qualitative". Here, after a general introduction and historical overview, we emphasize the role of counterfactual reasoning within the quantitative frameworks of probabilityExpand
On an alleged counter-example to causal decision theory
TLDR
An alleged counterexample to causal decision theory, put forward by Andy Egan, is studied in some detail and it is shown how decisions can have epistemic side-effects that are not mediated by the act and that there are cases where one can only bring oneself to perform the best act by updating by imaging rather than by conditioning. Expand
Causal Counterfactuals without Miracles or Backtracking
  • 2021
On the relevant readings, where we hold fixed factors causally independent of your choice, both of these conditionals appear true. And denying either leads to trouble for philosophical theories whichExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 12 REFERENCES
Utilitarianisms: Simple and general
If we overlook no consequences when we assess the act, and no relevant features when we generalize, can it matter whether we ask ‘What would happen if everyone did the same?’ instead of ‘What wouldExpand
A Theory of Conditionals
A conditional sentence expresses a proposition which is a function of two other propositions, yet not one which is a truth function of those propositions. I may know the truth values of “Willie MaysExpand
Newcomb’s Many Problems
Newcomb’s paradox rests on two arguments one appealing to the principle of maximizing expected utility and one appealing to dominance in order to generate conflicting recommendations in certain kindsExpand
Newcomb's Paradox Revisited
This paper attempts to provide a solution to the Newcomb Problem, which was first presented in Nozick [1969]. The author suggested there a solution of his own, with which he admitted to beingExpand
Comment on Brams's Discussion of Newcomb's Paradox
Brams mentions John A. Ferejohn's resolution of the paradox by reformulating the situation in such a way that the Being's choices "to put the money in B2" or "not to put" are changed to two "statesExpand
Newcomb’s Problem and Two Principles of Choice
TLDR
A being in whose power to predict your choices you have enormous confidence leads you to believe that almost certainly this being’s prediction about your choice in the situation to be discussed will be correct. Expand
Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities
The truthful speaker wants not to assert falsehoods, wherefore he is willing to assert only what he takes to be very probably true. He deems it permissible to assert that A only if P(A) isExpand
Newcomb's Problem and Prisoners' Dilemma
The relationship between Newcomb's problem, which involves an apparent paradox of prediction, and Prisoners' Dilemma is explicated. After describing a resolution to Newcomb's problem, due to John A.Expand
The Logic of Decision
"[This book] proposes new foundations for the Bayesian principle of rational action, and goes on to develop a new logic of desirability and probabtility."-Frederic Schick, "Journal of Philosophy"
...
1
2
...