Counterfactual Probabilities: Computational Methods, Bounds and Applications

@inproceedings{Balke1994CounterfactualPC,
  title={Counterfactual Probabilities: Computational Methods, Bounds and Applications},
  author={Alexander Balke and Judea Pearl},
  booktitle={UAI},
  year={1994}
}
Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. In this paper we present methods for computing the proba­ bilities of such queries using the formulation proposed in [Balke and Pearl, 1994], where the antecedent of the query is interpreted as an external action that forces the proposi­ tion A to be true. When a prior probability is available on the causal mechanisms gov­ erning the… CONTINUE READING
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