Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change

  title={Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change},
  author={Michael Ray Kearney and Brendan A Wintle and Warren P. Porter},
Good forecasts of climate change impacts on extinction risks are critical for effective conservation management responses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are central to extinction risk analyses. The reliability of predictions of SDMs has been questioned because models often lack a mechanistic underpinning and rely on assumptions that are untenable under climate change. We show how integrating predictions from fundamentally different modeling strategies produces robust forecasts of climate… CONTINUE READING
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