• Corpus ID: 232068609

Contact Tracing: Computational Bounds, Limitations and Implications

  title={Contact Tracing: Computational Bounds, Limitations and Implications},
  author={Quyu Kong and Manuel Garc{\'i}a-Herranz and Iv{\'a}n Dot{\'u} and Manuel Cebrian},
Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others (COVID-19). Here, we perform an exhaustive evaluation of random testing and contact tracing on novel superspreading random networks to try to identify which epidemics are more containable with such measures. We also explore the suitability of positive rates as a… 



Quantifying the Effects of Contact Tracing, Testing, and Containment Measures in the Presence of Infection Hotspots

This work introduces a temporal point process modeling framework that specifically represents visits to the sites where individuals get in contact and infect each other and demonstrates how to estimate the transmission rate of infectious individuals at the sites they visit and in their households using Bayesian optimization and longitudinal case data.

Epidemic Contact Tracing via Communication Traces

It is found that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves.

Contact tracing to control infectious disease: when enough is enough

It is shown that contact tracing is likely to have diminishing returns to scale in investment: incremental investments in contact tracing yield diminishing reductions in disease prevalence.

Efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

The current contact tracing strategy within the UK is likely to identify a sufficient proportion of infected individuals such that subsequent spread could be prevented, although the ultimate success will depend on the rapid detection of cases and isolation of contacts.

Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19

An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions.

Disease contact tracing in random and clustered networks

Stochastic simulations and deterministic ‘moment closure’ models of disease transmission on networks of premises (nodes), network and disease properties that are important for contact tracing efficiency are determined and an overall reduction in the proportion of nodes that are removed during an epidemic is observed.

Contact Tracing in the Context of COVID-19: Ethical Issues and Assessment

This study will try to analyze the ethical problems that arise with contact tracing mobile applications in the context of COVID-19 and suggest ways to prevent official measures taken to prevent the epidemic from spreading.

Chopping the tail: how preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control

A compartmental (SEIR) epidemiological model framework for estimating transmission parameters from multiple imperfectly observed data streams is presented and interventions that truncate the tail of the individual-level transmission rate distribution are broadly effective, with impacts on epidemic growth on par with the strongest population-wide social distancing observed in April, 2020.