Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long‐Run Risk

  title={Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long‐Run Risk},
  author={Lars Peter Hansen and John Heaton and Nan Li},
  journal={Journal of Political Economy},
  pages={260 - 302}
We characterize and measure a long‐term risk‐return trade‐off for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This trade‐off features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this analysis to claims on aggregate cash flows and to cash flows from value and growth portfolios by imputing values to the long‐run dynamic responses of cash flows to macroeconomic shocks. We explore the… Expand
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