Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

@article{Knutti2002ConstraintsOR,
  title={Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles},
  author={Reto Knutti and Thomas F. Stocker and Fortunat Joos and Gian-Kasper Plattner},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2002},
  volume={416},
  pages={719-723}
}
The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using… Expand
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