Constraining Uncertainties in CMIP5 Projections of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent with Observations

  title={Constraining Uncertainties in CMIP5 Projections of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent with Observations},
  author={Daniel Senftleben and Axel Lauer and Alexey Yu. Karpechko},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
In agreement with observations, Earth system models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulate a decline in September Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the past decades. However, the spread in their twenty-first-century SIE projections is large and the timing of the first ice-free Arctic summer ranges from 2020 to beyond 2100. The uncertainties arise from three sources (internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty), which are… 

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