Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

@article{Moore2017ConfidenceCI,
  title={Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition},
  author={Don A. Moore and Samuel A. Swift and Angela Minster and Barbara A. Mellers and Lyle H. Ungar and Philip Tetlock and Heather H. J. Yang and Elizabeth R. Tenney},
  journal={Management Science},
  year={2017},
  volume={63},
  pages={3552-3565}
}
This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecasters predicted the outcomes of hundreds of events. We sought to apply insights from research to… CONTINUE READING
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