Conditional Predictions

  title={Conditional Predictions},
  author={Stefan Kaufmann},
  journal={Linguistics and Philosophy},
ABSTRACTThe connection between the probabilities of conditionals and the corresponding conditional probabilities has long been explored in the philosophical literature, but its implementation faces both technical obstacles and objections on empirical grounds. In this paper I ?rst outline the motivation for the probabilistic turn and Lewis’ triviality results, which stand in the way of what would seem to be its most straightforward implementation. I then focus on Richard Jeffrey’s ’random… Expand
Local Probabilities for Conditionals
Adams' Thesis states that the probability of a conditional is the probability of the consequent conditional on the antecedent. S. Kaufmann introduced a rival method, the so-called \localExpand
Towards a Probabilistic Analysis for Conditionals and Unconditionals
An analysis is offered which addresses issues by extending the interpretation of conditonals in Bernoulli models to the case of unconditionals, i.e., conditionals with interrogative antecedents. Expand
Probabilities of conditionals in context
This paper raises some challenges to Stefan Kaufmann’s account of why the Ramseyan thesis sometimes fails, and argues that the resulting theory offers compelling answers to the puzzling questions raised by failures of the RamSEyan thesis. Expand
Probabilistic inferences from conjoined to iterated conditionals
It is shown how the inference to B | A from A and B can be extended to compounds and iterations of both conditional events and biconditional events, and how the respective uncertainty propagation rules are determined. Expand
A Stochastic Graphs Semantics for Conditionals
The stochastic graph semantics provides a satisfactory answer to Lewis’s arguments against the PC = CP principle, and defends important intuitions which connect the notion of probability of a conditional with the (standard) notion of conditional probability. Expand
  • H. Leitgeb
  • Computer Science
  • The Review of Symbolic Logic
  • 2011
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Indicative And Subjunctive Conditionals
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Counterfactual Triviality: A Lewis‐Impossibility Argument for Counterfactuals
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I n a recent article in The Philosophical Review, Vann McGee (1989) attempts to extend Adams's account (1965, 1975) of the assertibility of so-called "indicative conditionals"' to certain compoundsExpand
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Tjrnest Adams (1965, 1975) has advanced a probabilistic acL count of conditionals, according to which the probability of a simple English indicative conditional is the conditional probability of theExpand
Papers in Philosophical Logic: Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities II
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A Sketch of Some Recent Developments in the Theory of Conditionals
Whatever one thinks about the ultimate suitability of the possible worlds account, as an analysis of English conditionals, he must agree that the dispute between Stalnaker and Lewis in these papers has considerably sharpened and clarified the authors' linguistic intuitions. Expand
Probabilities of Conditionals
Both conditionals and probabilities have been the subject of lively philosophical debate. Lately their interaction has been in the limelight, through the disputed thesis that Ρ(Α→Β)=P (Β/Α), theExpand
The Projection Strategy and the Truth: Conditions of Conditional Statements
'Indicative conditionals" are merely expressions of 'conditional beliefs', that is, of 'the agent's dispositions to change what he accepts in response to new information' (p. 102). As argued by AlanExpand
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A forward counterfactual conditional is one whose consequent is about a later time than any the antecedent is about: ‘If Stevenson had been President in 1953, the Viet Nam war would not haveExpand