Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

  title={Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales},
  author={James R. Holliday and William R. Graves and John B. Rundle and Donald L. Turcotte},
  journal={Pure and Applied Geophysics},
Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count… Expand

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