Computation and the Human Predicament

@article{Hayes2012ComputationAT,
  title={Computation and the Human Predicament},
  author={Brian Hayes},
  journal={American Scientist},
  year={2012},
  volume={100},
  pages={186}
}
  • B. Hayes
  • Published 2012
  • Physics
  • American Scientist
This reprint is provided for personal and noncommercial use. For any other use, please send a request Brian Hayes by electronic mail to bhayes@amsci.org. 
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?
  • P. Ehrlich, A. Ehrlich
  • Geography, Medicine
    Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
  • 2013
TLDR
Overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich and poor choices of technologies are major drivers; dramatic cultural change provides the main hope of averting calamity.
Simple Physical Model of Nature and Economy
This chapter describes a simple scenario model consisting of a material exchange between an economy and nature. A concept of natural capacity and an index of economic sustainability are introduced.
How does technology and population progress relate? An empirical study of the last 10,000 years
The relationship between technology and population is a key element in economic growth theories. We offer the first empirical analysis using direct time series data of major science and technology
Disziplinäre, interdisziplinäre und transdisziplinäre Zugänge zu Energiewende und Partizipation: Einblicke in die sozial- und geisteswissenschaftliche Energie(wende)forschung
Wirft man derzeit den Blick aus einem Uberlandzug oder von den Fernstrasen in Deutschland und vielen anderen Landern in die Landschaft, so fallen dem aufmerksamen Betrachter Veranderungen
Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity
While the proposed model is a rather simple model of a coupled human–water system, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological, population, production and consumption per
Limits to growth redux: A system dynamics model for assessing energy and climate change constraints to global growth
Abstract This study investigates the notion of limits to socioeconomic growth with a specific focus on the role of climate change and the declining quality of fossil fuel reserves. A new system
Screening models for integrated environmental planning – A feasibility study for Flanders
TLDR
A four-step approach using a skeleton model framework is proposed here to describe the functioning of Flanders as an integrated social, economic and environmental system at a high level of abstraction.
Financing sustainable development: Needs and ways
The present article makes an effort to understand, from the student-centric perspective, the notion of sustainable development and the role of Finance therein. Sustainable development, as suggested
Limits to Material Growth in a Resource Finite World
...
1
2
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 20 REFERENCES
The power of the bond between cause and effect: Jay Wright Forrester and the field of system dynamics
This article presents a treatment of Jay Wright Forrester's life and achievements. The concentration is on the intellectual provenance, emergence and growth of system dynamics. Copyright © 2007 John
Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems
This paper addresses several social concerns: population trends; quality of urban life; policies for urban growth; and the unexpected, ineffective, or detrimental results often generated by
The Limits to Growth Revisited
Foreword 1. Introduction 2. The story of "The Limits to Growth" 3. Of models and simulations 4. System dynamics modeling 5. Modeling the real world: whaling in 19th century 6. World modeling by
A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming
Global warming skeptics often fall back on the argument that the scientific case for global warming is all model predictions, nothing but simulation; they warn us that we need to wait for real data,
Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World
The monography presents a mathematical model, "World 3", of the world for the years 1900—2100. The purpose of the model are the conditional; inprecise projections of dynamic behaviour modes of the
Limits to growth : the 30-year update
In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global
A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality
In 1972, the Club of Rome’s infamous report “The Limits to Growth” (Meadows et al., 1972) presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to
Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil : In the 1970s a rising world population and the finite resources available to support it were hot topics. Interest faded-but it's time to take another look
tal impacts of human activity, especial ly those related to climate change and biodiversity, but far less attention has been paid to the diminishing resource base for humans. Despite our inatten
Beyond the limits: Global collapse or a sustainable future
"Beyond the Limits" presents a warning and a choice: a rapid and uncontrolled decline in food production, industrial capacity, population and life expectancy, or a sustainable future. By using their
Investigations into the World3 Model: The Capital and Resource Subsystem
  • W. Thissen
  • Computer Science
    IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics
  • 1976
TLDR
This paper is the first in a series in which the analysis of other sectors of World3 and the interplay between the sectors will be discussed, with a view to understanding the sector's behavior in greater detail and illustrating the usefulness of a number of methods well known in system theory.
...
1
2
...