Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity

  title={Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity},
  author={Nathan M. Urban and Klaus Keller},
[1] A persistent feature of empirical climate sensitivity estimates is their heavy tailed probability distribution indicating a sizeable probability of high sensitivities. Previous studies make general claims that this upper heavy tail is an unavoidable feature of (i) the Earth system, or of (ii) limitations in our observational capabilities. Here we show that reducing the uncertainty about (i) oceanic heat uptake and (ii) aerosol climate forcing can—in principle— cut off this heavy upper tail… CONTINUE READING
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