Comparison of short-term and long-term earthquake forecast models for southern California

  title={Comparison of short-term and long-term earthquake forecast models for southern California},
  author={Agn{\`e}s Helmstetter and Yan Y � Kagan and David D. Jackson},
We consider the problem of forecasting earthquakes on two different time scales: years, and days. We evaluate some published forecast models on these time scales, and suggest improvements in forecast models on both time scales. For time scales of several years, we modify the smoothed seismicity method of Kagan and Jackson [1994; 2000] by smoothing the locations of magnitude 2 and larger earthquakes. Kagan and Jackson used only magnitude 5 and larger. The new long-term model outperforms the best… CONTINUE READING


Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 33 references

Short-term properties of earthquake catalogs and models of earthquake

Y. Y. Kagan
source, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., • 2004
View 4 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes delineate areas where larger earthquakes are likely to occur

A. L. Kafka, S. Z. Levin
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., • 2000
View 3 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale

D. A. Rhoades, F. F. Evison
Pure Appl. Geophys., • 2004
View 2 Excerpts

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…