Comparison of short-term and long-term earthquake forecast models for southern California

@inproceedings{Helmstetter2005ComparisonOS,
  title={Comparison of short-term and long-term earthquake forecast models for southern California},
  author={Agn{\`e}s Helmstetter and Yan Y � Kagan and David D. Jackson},
  year={2005}
}
We consider the problem of forecasting earthquakes on two different time scales: years, and days. We evaluate some published forecast models on these time scales, and suggest improvements in forecast models on both time scales. For time scales of several years, we modify the smoothed seismicity method of Kagan and Jackson [1994; 2000] by smoothing the locations of magnitude 2 and larger earthquakes. Kagan and Jackson used only magnitude 5 and larger. The new long-term model outperforms the best… CONTINUE READING

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