Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

  title={Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting},
  author={Sebastian Lerch and Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir},
  journal={Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
In weather forecasting, non-homogeneous regression (NR) is used to statistically post-process forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal (TN) distribution, where location and spread derive from the ensemble. This article proposes two alternative approaches which utilise the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. A direct alternative to the TN regression is to apply a predictive… 
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