Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

@inproceedings{Helmstetter2006ComparisonOS,
  title={Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California},
  author={Agn{\`e}s Helmstetter and Yan Y � Kagan and David D. Jackson},
  year={2006}
}
We have initially developed a time-independent forecast for southern California by smoothing the locations of magnitude 2 and larger earthquakes. We show that using small m 2 earthquakes gives a reasonably good prediction of m 5 earthquakes. Our forecast outperforms other time-independent models (Kagan and Jackson, 1994; Frankel et al., 1997), mostly because it has higher spatial resolution. We have then developed a method to estimate daily earthquake probabilities in southern California by… CONTINUE READING
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