Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

  title={Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California},
  author={A. Helmstetter and Y. Kagan and D. Jackson},
  journal={Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America},
We have initially developed a time-independent forecast for southern California by smoothing the locations of magnitude 2 and larger earthquakes. We show that using small m 2 earthquakes gives a reasonably good prediction of m 5 earthquakes. Our forecast outperforms other time-independent models (Kagan and Jackson, 1994; Frankel et al., 1997), mostly because it has higher spatial resolution. We have then developed a method to estimate daily earthquake probabilities in south- ern California by… Expand
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  • D. Agnew
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
  • Nature
  • 2005
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