Comparison of Hurricane Return Levels Using Historical and Geological Records

  title={Comparison of Hurricane Return Levels Using Historical and Geological Records},
  author={James B. Elsner and Thomas H. Jagger and Kam‐biu Liu},
  journal={Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
Abstract Hurricane return levels estimated using historical and geological information are quantitatively compared for Lake Shelby, Alabama. The minimum return level of overwash events recorded in sediment cores is estimated using a modern analog (Hurricane Ivan of 2004) to be 54 m s−1 (105 kt) for a return period of 318 yr based on 11 events over 3500 yr. The expected return level of rare hurricanes in the observed records (1851–2005) at this location and for this return period is estimated… 

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