Comparative performance and external validation of the multivariable PREDICT Prostate tool for non-metastatic prostate cancer: a study in 69,206 men from Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe)

  title={Comparative performance and external validation of the multivariable PREDICT Prostate tool for non-metastatic prostate cancer: a study in 69,206 men from Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe)},
  author={David R Thurtle and Ola Bratt and P{\"a}r Stattin and Paul D. P. Pharoah and Vincent J. Gnanapragasam},
  journal={BMC Medicine},
PREDICT Prostate is an endorsed prognostic model that provides individualised long-term prostate cancer-specific and overall survival estimates. The model, derived from UK data, estimates potential treatment benefit on overall survival. In this study, we externally validated the model in a large independent dataset and compared performance to existing models and within treatment groups. Men with non-metastatic prostate cancer and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) < 100 ng/ml diagnosed between… 

Clinical impact of the Predict Prostate risk communication tool in men newly diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer: a multi-centre randomised controlled trial.

This first randomised study of a personalised risk communication tool for men newly diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer demonstrates Predict Prostate can directly inform the complex decision-making process in prostate cancer.

PREDICT Prostate, a useful tool in men with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer who are hesitant between conservative management and active treatment

The PREDICT Prostate tool was able to discriminate patients who faced PCa-specific mortality and outperformed other widely used models such as the CAPRA and the three-tier EAU classification.

Evaluation of Prognostic and Predictive Models in the Oncology Clinic.

Assessing the impact of MRI based diagnostics on pre-treatment disease classification and prognostic model performance in men diagnosed with new prostate cancer from an unscreened population

MRI guided diagnostics does change pre-treatment risk groups assignments but the overall prognostic impact appears modest in men referred for suspected prostate cancer from an unscreened population.



Individual prognosis at diagnosis in nonmetastatic prostate cancer: Development and external validation of the PREDICT Prostate multivariable model

An individualised prognostic model that contextualises PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) against other cause mortality, and estimates the impact of treatment on survival, and is the first to the authors' knowledge that models potential treatment benefits on overall survival.

Understanding of prognosis in non-metastatic prostate cancer: a randomised comparative study of clinician estimates measured against the PREDICT prostate prognostic model

Clinician estimates of survival were compared against model predictions and reported treatment recommendations with and without seeing PREDICT estimates were compared, suggesting clinicians overestimate cancer-related mortality and radical treatment benefit.

Proportion and characteristics of men with unknown risk category in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden

Men with unknown risk category were rare in NPCR but distinctly different from other men in NPCr in many aspects including higher comorbidity and lower Pca mortality.

The University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score: a straightforward and reliable preoperative predictor of disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

The UCSF-CAPRA score is a straightforward yet powerful preoperative risk assessment tool which would be a strong predictor of outcome across various levels of risk and which could be easily applied and intuitively understood.

PREDICT Plus: development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2

Predict+ is the first clinical breast cancer prognostication tool that includes tumour HER2 status and might lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.

Trends and Outcome from Radical Therapy for Primary Non-Metastatic Prostate Cancer in a UK Population

Significant shifts in non-metastatic prostate cancer management over the last decade are identified, with low-risk disease now primarily managed by CM while high- risk disease is increasingly treated radically.

Genomic Markers in Prostate Cancer Decision Making.

Biochemical Outcome after radical prostatectomy, external beam Radiation Therapy, or interstitial Radiation therapy for clinically localized prostate cancer

Low-risk patients had estimates of 5-year PSA outcome after treatment with RP, RT, or implant with or without neoadjuvant androgen deprivation that were not statistically different, whereas intermediate- and high- risk patients treated with RP or RT did better then those treated by implant.

Cohort Profile: the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden and Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden 2.0.

The database named Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) has now been extended with more cases, longer follow-up and a selection of two control series of men free of PCa at the time of sampling, resulting in PCBaSe 2.0.