Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model-Based Environmental Assessment: The Nusap System

@article{vanderSluijs2005CombiningQA,
  title={Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model-Based Environmental Assessment: The Nusap System},
  author={Jeroen P van der Sluijs and Matthieu Craye and Silvio Funtowicz and Penny Kloprogge and Jerome Ravetz and James S Risbey},
  journal={Wiley-Blackwell: Risk Analysis (Archive)},
  year={2005}
}
This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of… Expand
Comparing and integrating the NUSAP notational scheme with an uncertainty based risk perspective
TLDR
There are strong parallels between the two approaches to NUSAP and a general description of risk as conceptualised in the recently published Society for Risk Analysis glossary and it is concluded that particularly the use of visualisation tools in NUS AP can advantageously be utilised in extended quantitative risk assessments. Expand
Assessing qualitative and quantitative dimensions of uncertainty in energy modelling for policy support in the United Kingdom
TLDR
The NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree) approach is used to qualify uncertainty in the energy system model, ESME, because a range of critical model assumptions have weaknesses, or low pedigree scores, in aspects of the knowledge base that underpins them, and are subject to potential value-ladenness. Expand
NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment
TLDR
The evaluation of the assumptions using the NUSAP system enhanced the debate on the uncertainty and its communication in the results of a QMRA model, highlighted the model’s strong and weak points and was helpful for redesigning critical modules. Expand
A method for the analysis of assumptions in model-based environmental assessments
TLDR
This method for the analysis of assumptions enables the analysts to make conscious, well-underpinned, transparent choices, and pinpoints the issues in the chain that are important to communicate to the audience of the assessment report. Expand
Assessment of water quality management with a systematic qualitative uncertainty analysis.
TLDR
An understanding of qualitative uncertainty in terms of its conceptual definitions and practical applications is provided and the incorporation of the systematic consideration of quantitative uncertainty into water quality management is expected to refine the decision-making process. Expand
Uncertainty and precaution in environmental management: Insights from the UPEM conference
  • J. Sluijs
  • Economics, Computer Science
  • Environ. Model. Softw.
  • 2007
TLDR
A sample of highlights and insights of UPEM of relevance to the environmental modeling communities are presented, finding systematic long-term monitoring and learning are essential and more attention is needed for model structure uncertainty and equifinality. Expand
29. The NUSAP approach to uncertainty appraisal and communication
The knowledge base available for decision-making on contemporary environmental and sustainability issues is often characterised by an imperfect understanding of the complex systems involved.Expand
Navigating uncertainty in environmental composite indicators
Abstract Composite indicators (CIs) are increasingly used to measure and track environmental systems. However, they have faced criticism for not accounting for uncertainties and their often arbitraryExpand
A review of uncertainty in environmental risk: characterising potential natures, locations and levels
TLDR
This work highlights the potential for confusion, given the many versions of uncertainty typologies which exist for closely related risk domains and provides environmental risk analysts with information to form a solid foundation for uncertainty analysis (based on improved understanding) to identify uncertainties within an ERA. Expand
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of normalization factors to methodological assumptions
TLDR
This work aims at quantifying the influence of key methodological choices on the variability of the normalisation factors, and recommends that the normalization factors from Sala et al. (Int J Life Cycle Assess 20:1568–1585, 2015) are applied together with two additional sets ofnormalization factors. Expand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 48 REFERENCES
A protocol for assessment of uncertainty and strength of emissions data
This method is intended to assist in characterizing uncertainties in emissions data for the Mileubalans and to identify critical issues related to uncertainty. The method assesses both quantitativeExpand
Uncertainty Assessment of Voc Emissions from Paint in the Netherlands Using the Nusap System
TLDR
It is concluded that NUSAP facilitates systematic scrutinization of method and underlying assumptions and structures creative thinking on sources of error and bias, and provides a means to prioritise uncertainties and focus research efforts on the potentially most problematic parameters and assumptions. Expand
A method for the analysis of assumptions in assessments
TLDR
The proposed method enables analysts and stakeholders to conduct a well-structured discussion on potentially value-laden assumptions and their influence on the results of the assessment and led to a list of weak links in the calculation of these indicators. Expand
A Reflexive Approach to Dealing with Uncertainties in Environmental Health Risk Science and Policy.
Based on insights obtained through an analysis of an environmental health risk controversy, we developed a reflexive approach to uncertainty assessment, explicitly acknowledging the complexity of theExpand
A way out of the credibility crisis of models used in integrated environmental assessment
TLDR
A Post-Normal Science approach is required for dealing with environmental policy making, involving participation of ‘extended peer communities’ providing their ‘Extended facts’. Expand
On the Relative Importance of Input Factors in Mathematical Models
This article deals with global quantitative sensitivity analysis of the Level E model, a computer code used in safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal. The Level E code has been the subject ofExpand
Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models
TLDR
This paper presents a simple model for sensitivity analysis of fish population dynamics in the geosphere using Monte Carlo filtering and variance-based methods and concludes that Bayesian uncertainty estimation and global sensitivity analysis should be considered. Expand
SCIENCE FOR THE POST-NORMAL AGE
from uncertainty in knowledge and values; this is shown in the dominant teaching tradition in science, which created a universe of unquestionable facts, presented dogmatically for assimilation byExpand
LONG-TERM CHANGE IN VILLAGE-SCALE ECOSYSTEMS IN CHINA USING LANDSCAPE AND STATISTICAL METHODS
Densely populated village ecosystems in subsistence agriculture regions cov- er a global area equivalent to two-thirds of that of tropical rainforests. Measuring long- term anthropogenic changes inExpand
Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments
A computational model is a representation of some physical or other system of interest, first expressed mathematically and then implemented in the form of a computer program; it may be viewed as aExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...