Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections

@article{Graefe2013CombiningFA,
  title={Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections},
  author={Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong and Randall J. Jones and Alfred G. Cuz{\'a}n},
  journal={Forecasting Models eJournal},
  year={2013}
}

German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013

The present study reviews the accuracy of four methods for forecasting the 2013 German election: polls; prediction markets; expert judgement; and quantitative models. On average, across the two

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote

ABSTRACT We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party

Embrace the Differences: Revisiting the Pollyvote Method of Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections (2004 to 2020)

  • A. Graefe
  • Environmental Science
    SSRN Electronic Journal
  • 2021
While combining forecasts is well-known to reduce error, the question of how to best combine forecasts remains. Prior research suggests that combining is most beneficial when relying on diverse

Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes

In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, expert judgment and quantitative models), the combined PollyVote provided highly accurate predictions

Improving Causal Models for Election Forecasting: Further Evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting

The Golden Rule of Forecasting counsels forecasters to be conservative when making forecasts. We tested the value of three of the four Golden Rule guidelines that apply to causal models: modify

Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals

This study analyzes the relative accuracy of experts, polls, and the so-called ‘fundamentals’ in predicting the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016. Although

Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries

This paper provides the first test of applying guidelines for conservative forecasting to established election forecasting models and shows that election forecasters can substantially improve the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models by following simple guidelines forConservative forecasting.

Do Econometric Models Provide More Accurate Forecasts When They are More Conservative? A Test of Political Economy Models for Forecasting Elections

The assumptions of multiple regression analysis are not met in many practical forecasting situations and, as a result, regression models are insufficiently conservative. We tested the effect on
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 77 REFERENCES

Combining Forecasts

To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal

To combine or not to combine: selecting among forecasts and their combinations

Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and

Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the

Forecaster diversity and the benefits of combining forecasts

The expected error variance of a combined forecast is necessarily lower than that of an individual forecast, but in practice there may be considerable variation around these expected values. This

Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results

Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set

This paper uses forecast combination methods to forecast output growth in a seven-country quarterly economic data set covering 1959-1999, with up to 73 predictors per country. Although the forecasts

Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote

This research examines Gallup poll trial-heat forecasts of the two-party presidential popular vote for the incumbent presidential party. First, several existing forecasting equations are updated and

Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging

EBMA improves prediction by pooling information from multiple forecast models to generate ensemble predictions similar to a weighted average of component forecasts, and increases the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts relative to component models in three applications.

Polls and Votes

This article revises, updates, and examines the background for a highly accurate model for forecasting the national two-party popular vote in presidential elections. The model provides a vote
...