Collision prediction in roundabouts: a comparative study of extreme value theory approaches

@article{Orsini2019CollisionPI,
  title={Collision prediction in roundabouts: a comparative study of extreme value theory approaches},
  author={F. Orsini and Gregorio Gecchele and M. Gastaldi and R. Rossi},
  journal={Transportmetrica A: Transport Science},
  year={2019},
  volume={15},
  pages={556 - 572}
}
This work contributes to study the application of extreme value theory (EVT) in road safety analysis, estimating the risk of being involved in an entering–circulating collision in single-lane roundabouts. Detailed trajectory data of the vehicles were derived from a driving simulator experiment, and the time-to-collision (TTC) was used as a surrogate measure of safety. Three EVT approaches were applied, tested and compared: (1) the Generalized Extreme Value distribution used in the block maxima… Expand
Safety analysis of unsignalized intersections: a bivariate extreme value approach
ABSTRACT Application of extreme value theory (EVT) to road safety analysis is gaining interest, thanks to its ability to produce quick and reliable safety evaluations without the use of crash data.Expand
A comparison of collision-based and conflict-based safety evaluation of left-turn bay extension
ABSTRACT There is a need to validate the results of conflict-based before-after (BA) evaluations in terms of their collision reduction estimation. This study compares the results of a collision-basedExpand
Road safety of passing maneuvers: A bivariate extreme value theory approach under non-stationary conditions.
TLDR
This work applies the Block Maxima method and estimates several extremal univariate and bivariate models, including the logistic copula, and shows that accounting for driver specific characteristics and road infrastructure variables improve the head-on and rear-end collision probabilities estimation. Expand
Large‐scale road safety evaluation using extreme value theory
TLDR
This work applies extreme value theory (EVT) to a large-scale case study in two motorways, located in north-eastern Italy, and produces reliable predictions of annual rear-end collisions. Expand
Modeling traffic conflicts for use in road safety analysis: A review of analytic methods and future directions
TLDR
It is found that although substantial progress has been made in the modeling methodologies of traffic conflicts over the years, more research efforts are needed. Expand
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of traffic conflict extremes for crash estimation: A non-stationary peak over threshold approach
Abstract This study presents a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate crashes from traffic conflict extremes in a non-stationary context. The model combines a peak over threshold approach withExpand
Validating the Bayesian hierarchical extreme value model for traffic conflict-based crash estimation on freeway segments with site-level factors.
TLDR
The model was applied to data of lane change conflicts collected from 11 basic freeway segments in Guangdong Province, China and showed that Bayesian hierarchical extreme value models significantly outperform the at-site models in terms of crash estimation accuracy and precision. Expand
Modeling pedestrians' near-accident events at signalized intersections using gated recurrent unit (GRU).
TLDR
This paper aims to predict the near-accident events between pedestrians and vehicles at signalized intersections using PET and TTC (Time to Collision) and can be applied to develop collision warning systems under the Connected Vehicle environment. Expand
A systematic mapping review of surrogate safety assessment using traffic conflict techniques.
TLDR
This paper thoroughly mapping traffic conflicts and surrogate safety methodologies provides a consolidated and up-to-date summary of surrogate safety assessment methodologies and conflict measures and metrics and meticulously reviewed 549 studies to develop a unifying framework. Expand
A bivariate Bayesian hierarchical extreme value model for traffic conflict-based crash estimation
TLDR
A bivariate Bayesian hierarchal extreme value modeling method is developed that consists of a bivariate extreme value model that integrates different conflict indicators in a unified framework and a Bayesian hierarchical structure that combines traffic conflicts of different sites and accounts for heterogeneity in conflict extremes. Expand
...
1
2
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 52 REFERENCES
Safety analysis of passing maneuvers using extreme value theory
The increased availability of detailed trajectory data sets from naturalistic, observational and simulation-based studies are a key source for potential improvements in the development of detailedExpand
Freeway safety estimation using extreme value theory approaches: a comparative study.
TLDR
The comparison of results from the two modeling approaches indicates that the POT approach performs better than BM approach from the aspects of data utilization, estimate accuracy and estimate reliability, and much more robust estimated return levels are recommended for freeway safety evaluation. Expand
Roundabout Accident Prediction Model: Random-Parameter Negative Binomial Approach
Roundabouts have been used widely on all road classes in the United Kingdom because they are considered safer than other types of intersections in general. The objective of this study was to examineExpand
Using Extreme Value Theory for the Prediction of Head-On Collisions During Passing Maneuvres
TLDR
The Generalized Extreme Value distribution as an EV method using the minimum time-to-collision with the opposing vehicle during passing maneuvers achieves good fit with respect to head-on collisions' prediction indicating that this is a promising approach for safety evaluation. Expand
Extended prediction models for crashes at roundabouts
This paper builds upon the results of previously developed crash prediction models for roundabouts. The originally investigated sample was extended from 90 to 148 roundabouts. Poisson and gammaExpand
An Automated Surrogate Safety Analysis at Protected Highway Ramps Using Cross-Sectional and Before-
This study presents a method for surrogate safety analysis to investigate the safety of limited-access highway facilities. The proposed methodology is based on automated trajectory collection andExpand
Surrogate Safety Measures from Traffic Simulation Models
Safety is emerging as an area of increased attention and awareness within transportation engineering. Historically, the safety of new and innovative traffic treatments has been difficult to assess,Expand
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ROUNDABOUT GEOMETRY AND ACCIDENT RATES
This paper describes relationships between roundabout geometry and accident rates for one hundred roundabouts from throughout Queensland, Australia. Regression analyses are undertaken on "singleExpand
TIME-TO-COLLISION AND COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEMS
An important issue in developing Collision Avoidance Systems (CASs) is to define a proper warning strategy, that warns the driver only when he or she is really in danger and immediate action isExpand
The extreme value theory approach to safety estimation.
TLDR
A novel application of the extreme value theory to estimate safety is proposed, considered proactive in that it no longer requires historical crash data for the model calibration and evaluated by applying it to right-angle collisions at signalized intersections. Expand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...