Collision prediction in roundabouts: a comparative study of extreme value theory approaches

  title={Collision prediction in roundabouts: a comparative study of extreme value theory approaches},
  author={Federico Orsini and Gregorio Gecchele and Massimiliano Gastaldi and Riccardo Rossi},
  journal={Transportmetrica A: Transport Science},
  pages={556 - 572}
This work contributes to study the application of extreme value theory (EVT) in road safety analysis, estimating the risk of being involved in an entering–circulating collision in single-lane roundabouts. Detailed trajectory data of the vehicles were derived from a driving simulator experiment, and the time-to-collision (TTC) was used as a surrogate measure of safety. Three EVT approaches were applied, tested and compared: (1) the Generalized Extreme Value distribution used in the block maxima… 

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