Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis.

@article{Montibeller2015CognitiveAM,
  title={Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis.},
  author={Gilberto Montibeller and Detlof von Winterfeldt},
  journal={Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis},
  year={2015},
  volume={35 7},
  pages={
          1230-51
        }
}
Behavioral decision research has demonstrated that judgments and decisions of ordinary people and experts are subject to numerous biases. Decision and risk analysis were designed to improve judgments and decisions and to overcome many of these biases. However, when eliciting model components and parameters from decisionmakers or experts, analysts often face the very biases they are trying to help overcome. When these inputs are biased they can seriously reduce the quality of the model and… CONTINUE READING
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