Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis.

  title={Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis.},
  author={William M. Grove and David H. Zald and Boyd S. Lebow and Beth E. Snitz and Chad Nelson},
  journal={Psychological assessment},
  volume={12 1},
The process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. To compare the accuracy of clinical and mechanical (formal, statistical) data-combination techniques, we performed a meta-analysis on studies of human health and behavior. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined… 

Figures, Tables, and Topics from this paper

Clinical versus Statistical Prediction
In clinical decision making, clinical (i.e., impressionistic) or statistical (i.e., mechanical) methods may be employed in making specific predictions. Since these methods will not always produce the
Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction
This chapter compares and contrasts the relative utility of clinical and mechanical methods of prediction. Claims about the robustness of mechanical prediction are countered by recent meta-analyses
In defense of clinical judgment … and mechanical prediction
Despite over 50 years of one-sided research favoring formal prediction rules over human judgment, the “clinical-statistical controversy,” as it has come to be known, remains something of a hot-button
When clinical description becomes statistical prediction.
An emerging body of research suggests that clinical observations, just like lay observations, can be quantified using standard psychometric procedures, so that clinical description becomes statistical prediction.
Clinical Judgment and Mechanical Prediction
Computers can be used to make judgments and decisions. In this chapter, the strengths and limitations of mechanical prediction and clinical judgment are described. Judgments made by computers have
Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.
It is argued that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective.
A meta-analysis of confidence and judgment accuracy in clinical decision making.
The authors synthesized over 40 years of research from 36 studies, from 1970 to 2011, in which the confidence ratings of 1,485 clinicians were assessed in relation to the accuracy of their judgments about mental health or psychological issues, finding that confidence is better calibrated with accuracy than previously assumed.
Methodological advances in statistical prediction.
The purpose of this literature review is to describe methodological advances in statistical prediction, including the assignment of weights to predictors, the emergence of new statistical analyses, and the role of theory.
Clinical, Statistical, and Broken-Leg Predictions
Accurate prediction of behavior is a critical task for the psychologist, particularly for the practitioner. Outstanding among those who have successfully wrestled with this complicated task is Paul
Predicting Youth Treatment Failure: An Investigation of Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
Predicting Youth Treatment Failure: An Investigation of Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment Tessa Nicole Salisbury Department of Psychology, BYU Doctor of Philosophy Research investigating clinical


Clinical versus Actuarial Prediction
In psychology, statistical models are superior even when based on a subset of the information available to clinicians (who might, for example, also interview people) but may even be ‘improper’—as when a linear combination is based on ad hoc (but directionally correct) or intuitive weights.
A Contribution to the Study of Actuarial and Individual Methods of Prediction
  • T. Sarbin
  • Psychology
    American Journal of Sociology
  • 1943
Are predictions of conduct more accurate when made by case-study methods than by actuarial methods? This study is an experimental rather than a polemical attempt to determine the relative accuary of
The evaluation of clinical predictions. A method and initial application.
  • A. Shapiro
  • Medicine
    The New England journal of medicine
  • 1977
The accuracy coefficient, a measure of probabilistic accuracy based on probability assigned to outcomes that occur, was used to assess the skill of clinical rheumatologists in predicting patient outcomes and has potential use in physician assessment.
Clinical versus actuarial prediction: a review of the literature.
  • M. Marchese
  • Psychology, Medicine
    Perceptual and motor skills
  • 1992
The main conclusions are that linear models are superior to other mathematical models of human judgment, and actuarial methods are more accurate than clinical prediction in many situations and human judgment is flawed.
Predicting outcome in coronary disease. Statistical models versus expert clinicians.
In coronary artery disease, statistical models developed from carefully collected data can provide prognostic predictions that are more accurate than predictions of experienced clinicians made from detailed case summaries.
Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences.
Clinical psychologists, physicians, and other professionals are typically called upon to combine cues to arrive at some diagnostic or prognostic decision. Mathematical representations of such
Enhancement of clinical predictive ability by computer consultation.
Clinical predictive ability was assessed in 21 physicians and medical students. Each was provided a standard set of twenty case histories in random sequence and asked to predict tlje probability of
Clinical-actuarial detection and description of brain impairment with the W-B form I.
Results indicate that with actuarial indices, the adult Wechsler scales can be used accurately to identify and lateralize brain impairment.
Clinical and statistical prediction: Where are we and where do we go from here?
Abstract In the years following the publication of P.E. Meehl's monograph, our understanding of clinical and statistical prediction has been enriched by both empirical and conceptual analyses. The
Using computers to make judgments: Correlations among predictors and the comparison of linear and configural rules
Statistical prediction is an important method for predicting and describing human behavior. Though linear rules are generally recommended for prediction tasks, configural rules can do well. Their