Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

  title={Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem},
  author={Robin Cristofari and Xiaoming Liu and Francesco Bonadonna and Yves Cherel and Pierre A. Pistorius and Yvon le Maho and Virginie Raybaud and Nils C Stenseth and C{\'e}line Le Bohec and Emiliano Trucchi},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species’ niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past… 

Improving predictions of invasive fish ranges combining functional and ecological traits with environmental suitability under climate change scenarios

An empirical index is developed, based on functional and bio-ecological traits, that estimates the Invasive Potential (IP; i.e. the potential success in transport, introduction and population establishment) for a set of 13 fishes that are expanding their distributional range into the Mediterranean Sea, the most invaded sea in the world.

Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Ross Seals in a Warming Ocean

Understanding the determinants of poorly studied species’ spatial ecology is fundamental to understanding climate change impacts on those species and how to effectively prioritise their conservation.

European cephalopods distribution under climate-change scenarios

This study focuses on three largely harvested and common cephalopod species in Europe and modelled their contemporary and potential future distributional range over the twenty-first century using a recently improved species ensemble modelling framework coupled with five atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.

Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas

Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an

Influence of past climate change on phylogeography and demographic history of narwhals, Monodon monoceros

It is shown that narwhals experienced a long-term low effective population size, which increased after the Last Glacial Maximum, when the amount of suitable habitat expanded, which has been a key driver of population size expansion of other polar marine predators.

Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis

Expected reductions of climatic suitability in the study sites were strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions, namely lower plant health, reduced recruitment and increased adult mortality, which makes welwitschia a suitable bioindicator for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems.

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba: spatial distribution, abundance, and management of fisheries in a changing climate

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba, a keystone species in the Southern Ocean, is highly relevant for studying effects of climate-related shifts on management systems. Krill provides a key link between

Time-Dynamic Food Web Modeling to Explore Environmental Drivers of Ecosystem Change on the Kerguelen Plateau

Understanding the impacts of climate and fishing on marine systems is important for ecosystem-based management in the Southern Ocean, but can be difficult to evaluate due to patchy data in space and

Evidence of climate change impacts on the iconic Welwitschia mirabilis in the Namib Desert

Welwitschia is a suitable sentinel for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems and could be extensively adopted for selecting sentinel species in other regions and ecosystems.



Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

The prevention of further loss of populations will only be achieved through habitat restoration and reconnection to counteract the negative effects for these and several other co-occurring species.

Dispersal in the sub-Antarctic: king penguins show remarkably little population genetic differentiation across their range

The observed subtle differentiation among king penguin colonies must be considered in future conservation planning and monitoring of the species, and demographic models that attempt to forecast extinction risk in response to large-scale climate change must take into account migration.

Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

It is shown that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin breeding on the Crozet Islands revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution.

King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming

It is shown that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird, and suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

Climate impacts on transocean dispersal and habitat in gray whales from the Pleistocene to 2100

These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

This work shows how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin, and highlights a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

King penguin demography since the last glaciation inferred from genome-wide data

The results show that the king penguin population breeding on Crozet archipelago steeply increased in size, closely following the Holocene warming recorded in the Epica Dome C ice core.

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change

Predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation is shown.

Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail

  • J. Travis
  • Environmental Science
    Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
  • 2003
A sharp threshold in habitat availability exists below which a species rapidly becomes extinct, and a similar threshold exists for the rate of climate change as has been observed for habitat loss—patch occupancy remains high up to a critical rate ofClimate change, beyond which species extinction becomes likely.