Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

  title={Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups},
  author={Katharina Waha and Linda Krummenauer and Sophie Adams and Valentin Aich and Florent Baarsch and Dim Coumou and Marianela Fader and Holger Hoff and Guy Jobbins and Rachel Marcus and Matthias Mengel and Ilona M Otto and Mah{\'e} Perrette and Marcia Rocha and Alexander Robinson and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner},
  journal={Regional Environmental Change},
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change. These biophysical impacts paired with other pressures and a lack of resilience in some countries cause high… Expand

Figures from this paper

Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa
North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address thisExpand
Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
The mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. Expand
The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa
Abstract Climate change is projected to detrimentally affect African countries’ economic development, while income inequalities across economies is among the highest on the planet. However, it isExpand
Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate
This study investigates future changes of temperature, precipitation, and associated extreme events in the MENA region using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate over the CORDEX-MENA domain. ModelExpand
Agroecology for adaptation to climate change and resource depletion in the Mediterranean region. A review
Abstract Mediterranean agriculture has coevolved with harsh environments and changing climate conditions over millennia, generating an extremely rich heritage of traditional knowledge; however, it isExpand
Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest
Anthropogenic climate warming has increased the likelihood of extreme hot summers. To facilitate mitigation and adaptation planning, it is essential to quantify and synthesize climate change impactsExpand
Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptationExpand
The Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Middle East and North Africa : Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
Water, energy, and agriculture have been conventionally dealt with separately in investment planning. For each of these sectors, regulatory frameworks, organizations, and infrastructures have beenExpand
Multi-dimensional Drought Risk Assessment based on Socio-economic Vulnerabilities and Hydro-Climatological Factors
Drought is among the costliest natural hazards developing slowly and affecting large areas, which imposes severe consequences on society and economy. Anthropogenic climate change is expected toExpand
Recurring droughts or social shifts? Exploring drivers of large-scale transformations in a transformed country
Abstract As climate change intensifies, the need for large-scale transformations that reform vulnerable systems’ prevailing values and development pathways is increasingly recognized. However, thereExpand


Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco
Abstract Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability,Expand
Implications of Climate Change for Agriculture and Food Security in the Western Asia and Northern Africa Region
Western Asia and Northern Africa (WANA) region is considered to be one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. In particular, dry areas characterized by low and unpredictableExpand
Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa
Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which theExpand
Climate Change Compounding Risks in North Africa
The impact of climate change on agriculture and poor groups’ livelihoods are one of the greatest potential threats to development and a key challenge in climate change agenda. The North Africa regionExpand
Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Migration: Review of the Literature for Five Arab Countries
This chapter summarizes some of what is known about climate change in the Arab world and its impact on migration, with a focus on five countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. MigratoryExpand
Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East
Long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B suggest a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Expand
Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century
The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. ModelExpand
21st century climate change in the Middle East
This study examined the performance and future predictions for the Middle East produced by 18 global climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth AssessmentExpand
Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature
Many of the decisions relating to future urban development require information on climate change risks to cities This review of the academic and “grey” literature provides an overview assessment ofExpand
Climate and desertification: looking at an old problem through new lenses
Global poverty, defined in almost any way, is disproportionately concentrated in the arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid regions – the drylands – of the world. We suggest that the intrinsic biophysicalExpand