BACKGROUND Brazil is the largest producer of coffee in the world. Studies on climate change estimate large impacts on production of Coffea arabica (C. arabica). In this context, it is necessary to know the quantitative production values to provide evidence for policy makers to target the prompt answer. RESULTS Using data from 18 municipalities located in five Brazilian States that produce more coffee in Brazil, in an unprecedented way, in this work it is shown that although the minimum temperature is the most important climatic variable for the production, its effect, although positive, and its degree of explanation, were technically too small to explain the volume of production in Brazilian conditions. According to the model of non-stationary time series ARIMA (1, 1, 0) the coffee production in the future may reach almost four million tons, and the productivity almost 2,500 kg ha-1 on average, being the advancement of technology the main factor that should promote the simultaneous increases in production and productivity. However, despite the natural climate variations, which make it the most responsible for the variability of annual coffee production, the producer must increase the use of the technologies to support the Brazilian coffee agribusiness. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study reveal that the coffee production in Brazil is much more due to productivity than to the minimum ambient temperature change over the long term, despite this climate variable be considered the most influential on the production and productivity of coffee.