• DOI:10.1126/science.1203513
• Corpus ID: 18735283

Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

@article{Schmittner2011ClimateSE,
  title={Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum},
  author={Andreas Schmittner and Nathan Mark Urban and Jeremy D. Shakun and Natalie M. Mahowald and Peter U. Clark and Patrick J. Bartlein and Alan C. Mix and Antoni Rosell‐Mel{\'e}},
  journal={Science},
  year={2011},
  volume={334},
  pages={1385 - 1388}
}

• A. Schmittner, N. Urban, +5 authors A. Rosell‐Melé
• Published 1 December 2011
• Environmental Science
• Science

Last Glacial Maximum temperature reconstructions and model simulations can constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity. Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.