Climate Change and Hazard Zonation in the Circum-Arctic Permafrost Regions

  title={Climate Change and Hazard Zonation in the Circum-Arctic Permafrost Regions},
  author={Frederick E. Nelson and Oleg A. Anisimov and Nikolay I. Shiklomanov},
  journal={Natural Hazards},
The permafrost regions currently occupy about one quarter of the Earth's land area.Climate-change scenarios indicate that global warming will be amplified in the polarregions, and could lead to a large reduction in the geographic extent of permafrost.Development of natural resources, transportation networks, and human infrastructurein the high northern latitudes has been extensive during the second half of the twentiethcentury. In areas underlain by ice-rich permafrost, infrastructure could be… 

Permafrost and Changing Climate: The Russian Perspective

Results from mathematical modeling indicate that by the mid-21st century, near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere may shrink by 15%–30%, leading to complete thawing of the frozen ground in the upper few meters, while elsewhere the depth of seasonal thawed ground may increase on average by 15%"–25%, and by 50% or more in the northernmost locations.

Statistical modelling of circumpolar permafrost: thermal and geomorphic sensitivities to climate change and societal implications

One-fourth of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere is affected by perennially frozen ground, known as permafrost. The thermal conditions of permafrost govern complex geo- and ecosystems and

Changing Lowland Permafrost in Northern Sweden: Multiple Drivers of Past and Future Trends

Climate warming is more pronounced in the Arctic than in other parts of the world. This warming affects the terrestrial cryosphere including permafrost with consequences ranging from societal impacts

Alterations To Permafrost Environments Induced By Climate Change

Permafrost environments currently cover approximately twenty-five percent of the Northern Hemisphere. However current empirical and theoretical evidence indicates that much of the existing permafrost

Effect of Climate Change on Siberian Infrastructure

This chapter examines effects of climate change on human infrastructure in permafrost regions of Siberia. The presence and dynamic nature of ice-rich permafrost constitute a distinctive engineering

Permafrost conditions in the Mediterranean region since the Last Glaciation

Spatial variability of permafrost active-layer thickness under contemporary and projected climate in Northern Alaska

The active layer plays an important role in the functioning of environmental ecosystems and affects many human activities in the polar regions. Regional assessments and predictions of this parameter

Permafrost, Infrastructure, and Climate Change: A GIS-Based Landscape Approach to Geotechnical Modeling

Abstract Increases in air temperature have occurred in most parts of the Arctic in recent decades. Corresponding changes in permafrost and the active layer have resulted in decreases in



Permafrost distribution in the Northern Hemisphere under scenarios of climatic change


Numerous studies have demonstrated that both global patterns and local details of permafrost distribution are highly responsive to climatic fluctuations, at several temporal and spatial scales.

Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models


Human-induced climatic warming will have major impacts on permafrost, which presently underlies half of Canada's land mass. The adaptation of the northern environment and its physical processes to

Disequilibrium response of permafrost in boreal continental western Canada to climate change

In the boreal forest of continental western Canada, permafrost is restricted toSphagnum-dominated peatlands on which air photo interpretation reveals the occurrence of five types of surface

Permafrost zonation in Russia under anthropogenic climatic change

Warming induced by the hypothesized greenhouse effect will have profound consequences for permafrost distribution throughout the high-latitude regions of the globe. Two scenarios of climate change

The impact of climatic warming on permafrost conditions in Russia 1

Abstract The paper examines the probable impact of climatic warming on permafrost, considering three possible climatic variants of maritime, continental, and moderated continental conditions, and two

Changing Climate: Geothermal Evidence from Permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic

Since models of greenhouse warming predict climatic change will be greatest in the Arctic and might already be in progress, it is prudent to attempt to understand the rapidly changing thermal regime in this region.

Statistics and characteristics of permafrost and ground-ice distribution in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract The recently published digital version of the International Permafrost Association (IPA) Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground Ice Conditions (the IPA map), together with ancillary data

Permafrost and climate change: geotechnical implications

  • P. J. Williams
  • Environmental Science, Geology
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Physical and Engineering Sciences
  • 1995
The behaviour of the ground in the cold regions of the world is characterized by freezing and thawing. The porous and particulate nature of soils presents conditions for phase change which lead to