Clarifying the Roles of Greenhouse Gases and ENSO in Recent Global Warming through Their Prediction Performance

  title={Clarifying the Roles of Greenhouse Gases and ENSO in Recent Global Warming through Their Prediction Performance},
  author={Umberto Triacca and Antonello Pasini and Alessandro Attanasio and Alessandro Giovannelli and Marco Lippi},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
AbstractIt is well known that natural external forcings and decadal-to-millennial variability drove changes in the climate system throughout the Holocene. Regarding recent times, attribution studies have shown that greenhouse gases (GHGs) determined the trend of temperature (T) in the last half century, while circulation patterns contributed to modify its interannual, decadal, or multidecadal behavior over this period. Here temperature predictions based on vector autoregressive models (VARs… 

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