Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  title={Cholera dynamics and El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation.},
  author={Mercedes Pascual and Xavier Rod{\'o} and Stephen P. Ellner and Rita R. Colwell and Menno Bouma},
  volume={289 5485},
Analysis of a monthly 18-year cholera time series from Bangladesh shows that the temporal variability of cholera exhibits an interannual component at the dominant frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results from nonlinear time series analysis support a role for both ENSO and previous disease levels in the dynamics of cholera. Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional… 

ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the

Disentangling the Impact of ENSO and Indian Ocean Variability on the Regional Climate of Bangladesh: Implications for Cholera Risk

Abstract Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models indicate that there is a link between the incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial illness

Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned

Predictions of the predictability of cholera dynamics for the city in recent times are discussed in the context of regional and local climate conditions, which show that despite positive regional rainfall anomalies, rainfall and inundation in Dhaka remained low.

ENSO and cholera in South America : what can we learn about it from the 1991 cholera outbreak?

This paper explains what the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is and how it affects the environment and economic activities. A brief description of the huge cholera outbreak that swept Peru and

Links between Tropical Pacific SST and Cholera Incidence in Bangladesh: Role of the Western Tropical and Central Extratropical Pacific

Abstract Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models demonstrate a link between the incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial illness endemic to

Cholera resurgence in Piura, Peru: examining climate associations during the 1997–1998 El Niño

AbstractIn Peru, the climate pattern El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was linked to a resurgence of cholera in 1998. While previous studies found a temperature connection, El Niño’s impact on

The Role of Global Climate Patterns in the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Vector-Borne Disease

Global climate variability patterns, such as those associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, have been shown to have an impact on vector-borne infectious disease outbreaks.



Global Climate and Infectious Disease: The Cholera Paradigm*

The association of Vibrio cholerae with plankton, notably copepods, provides further evidence for the environmental origin of cholera, as well as an explanation for the sporadic and erratic occurrence of Cholera epidemics.

Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Global Atmosphere. Part II: Southern Hemisphere.

Abstract In Part II of this two-part article, we complete the systematic examination of oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere by studying 12 years of 500 mb geopotential heights in the Southern

Remote Sea Surface Temperature Variations during ENSO: Evidence for a Tropical Atmospheric Bridge

Abstract In an El Nino event, positive SST anomalies usually appear in remote ocean basins such as the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the tropical North Atlantic approximately 3 to 6 months

Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics

This paper uses nonparametric statistical methods to analyse how birth rate and population size modulate the negative density dependence between successive epidemics as well as their periodicity.

Small amplitude, long period outbreaks in seasonally driven epidemics

By relaxing the assumption of uniformity in the supply of susceptibles, simple models predict stable long period oscillatory epidemics having small amplitude, both coupled and single population models are considered.

Cholera in Lima, Peru, correlates with prior isolation of Vibrio cholerae from the environment.

Data from environmental sites in Lima, Peru from November 1993 through March 1995 support a model of cholera seasonality in which initial increases in number of V. cholerae in the environment are followed by onset of illness in the community, with these human cases further amplifying the organism as the epidemic cycle proceeds.

Climate and infectious disease: use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement.

  • B. LobitzL. Beck R. Colwell
  • Environmental Science
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
  • 2000
Confirming the hypothesis that V. cholerae is autochthonous to the aquatic environment and is a commensal of zooplankton, i.e., copepods, when combined with the findings of the satellite data analyses, provide strong evidence that cholera epidemics are climate-linked.