Children's understanding of posterior probability.

@article{Girotto2008ChildrensUO,
  title={Children's understanding of posterior probability.},
  author={Vittorio Girotto and Michel Gonz{\'a}lez},
  journal={Cognition},
  year={2008},
  volume={106 1},
  pages={325-44}
}
Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five, children's decisions under uncertainty (Study 1) and judgments about random outcomes (Study 2) are correctly affected by posterior information. From the… CONTINUE READING

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