Characterizing and Constraining Uncertainty Associated with Surface and Boundary Layer Turbulent Fluxes in Simulations of Lake-Effect Snowfall

  title={Characterizing and Constraining Uncertainty Associated with Surface and Boundary Layer Turbulent Fluxes in Simulations of Lake-Effect Snowfall},
  author={Justin R. Minder and W. Massey Bartolini and Christopher Spence and Newell Hedstrom and Peter D. Blanken and John D. Lenters},
  journal={Weather and Forecasting},
Lake-effect snow (LeS) storms are driven by strong turbulent surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) fluxes of heat and moisture caused by the flow of cold air over relatively warm water. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated LeS to the parameterization of SL and PBL turbulence, high-resolution simulations of two major storms, downwind of Lakes Superior and Ontario, are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Multischeme and parameter sensitivity… 

The Influence of Boundary Layer Mixing Strength on the Evolution of a Baroclinic Cyclone

Subgrid-scale turbulence in numerical weather prediction models is typically handled by a PBL parameterization. These schemes attempt to represent turbulentmixing processes occurring below the

Improvements to Lake-Effect Snow Forecasts Using a One-Way Air–Lake Model Coupling Approach

Lake-effect convective snowstorms frequently produce high-impact, hazardous winter weather conditions downwind of the North American Great Lakes. During lake-effect snow events, the lake surfaces can

Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes

As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and ongoing research is beginning to focus on the large-scale environments conducive to LES. Synoptic-scale

Effects of Heterogeneous Surface Roughness on Boundary Layer Kinematics and Wind Shear

Different types of land cover are associated with different surface roughness, which produce variations in the frictional force on the wind.  Therefore, mean wind profiles at low levels often differ

Forecasting lake‐/sea‐effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges

Lake‐/sea‐effect snow forms typically from late fall to winter when a cold air mass moves over the warmer, large water surface. The resulting intense snowfall has many societal impacts on communities

Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long climate

Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to their frequent passage over the Great Lakes basin. However, not all clippers produce LES, and no

Sensitivity of Convective Cell Dynamics and Microphysics to Model Resolution for the OWLeS IOP2b Lake-Effect Snowband

The OWLeS IOP2b lake-effect case is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with a horizontal grid spacing of 148 m (WRF-LES mode). The dynamics and microphysics of the

Downstream Evolution and Coastal-to-Inland Transition of Landfalling Lake-Effect Systems

The distribution and intensity of lake- and sea-effect (hereafter lake-effect) precipitation are strongly influenced by the mode of landfalling lake-effect systems. Here, we used idealized large-eddy



Turbulent Heat Fluxes during an Extreme Lake Effect Snow Event: Direct Measurements and Model Ensemble

AbstractProper modeling of the turbulent heat fluxes over lakes is critical for accurate predictions of lake-effect snowfall (LES). However, model evaluation of such a process has not been possible

A Review of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes and Their Sensitivity in Simulating Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments

AbstractThe representation of turbulent mixing within the lower troposphere is needed to accurately portray the vertical thermodynamic and kinematic profiles of the atmosphere in mesoscale model

Performance of an Eddy Diffusivity-Mass Flux Scheme for Shallow Cumulus Boundary Layers

Comparisons between single-column (SCM) simulations with the total energy‐mass flux boundary layer scheme (TEMF) and large-eddy simulations (LES) are shown for four cases from the Gulf of Mexico

The Dependence of QPF on the Choice of Boundary- and Surface-Layer Parameterization for a Lake-Effect Snowstorm

AbstractSix forecasts of a lake-effect-snow event off Lake Erie were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to determine how the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) was

Mesoscale Boundary Layer and Heat Flux Variations over Pack Ice–Covered Lake Erie

Abstract The development of extensive pack ice fields on the Great Lakes significantly influences lake-effect storms and local airmass modification, as well as the regional hydrologic cycle and lake

Numerical Study of the Influence of Environmental Conditions on Lake-Effect Snowstorms over Lake Michigan

Abstract Numerical simulations are used to examine the influence of environmental parameters on the morphology of lake effect snowstorms over Lake Michigan. A series of model sensitivity studies are

A Combined Local and Nonlocal Closure Model for the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. Part I: Model Description and Testing

  • J. Pleim
  • Environmental Science, Physics
  • 2007
The modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer during convective conditions has long been a major source of uncertainty in the numerical modeling of meteorological conditions and air quality. Much of

Observational Study of a Convective Internal Boundary Layer over Lake Michigan

Abstract Using aircraft data collected during the University of Chicago Lake-Effect Snow Storm project, the results of a case study of the convective thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) over Lake

Impact of Microphysics Parameterizations on Simulations of the 27 October 2010 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm

AbstractSimulations of moist convection at cloud-permitting grid spacings are sensitive to the parameterization of microphysical processes, posing a challenge for operational weather prediction.

Two Examples of Planetary Boundary Layer Modification Over the Great Lakes

Abstract Aircraft measurements of sensible and latent heat fluxes, surface and air temperature, mean wind and humidity were used to examine the boundary layer structure over the Great Lakes for two