Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment

  title={Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment},
  author={Peter J. Webster and Greg J. Holland and Judith A. Curry and H-R Chang},
  pages={1844 - 1846}
We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of… Expand
Comment on "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment"
  • J. Chan
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
  • Science
  • 2006
Analyses of tropical cyclone records from the western North Pacific reveal that the recent increase in occurrence of intense typhoons reported by Webster et al. is not a trend, but is likely a part of the large interdecadal variations in the number of intense Typhoons related to similar temporal fluctuations in the atmospheric environment. Expand
Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?
  • G. Holland, P. Webster
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
  • 2007
It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Expand
Environmental Influences on Tropical Cyclone Variability and Trends
Tropical cyclone activity has been increasing in concert with tropical ocean temperatures globally (Emanuel 2005; Webster et al. 2005). The correlation between tropical cyclone (TC) activity and seaExpand
Sea‐surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin
[1] Whereas there is a significant relationship between overall sea-surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone intensity, the relationship is much less clear in the upper range of SST normallyExpand
Long-term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers
Tropical cyclone (TC) observations are used to examine changes in the TC climatology of the Australian region. The ability to investigate long-term changes in TC numbers improves when the ElExpand
Tropical cyclone effects on Arctic Sea ice variability
[1] In recent years increasing interest has been put on the role that intense Tropical Cyclones can play in the climate system. The following study is aimed at highlighting the effects of strongExpand
Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific
The relationships between tropical cyclones in the South Pacific Ocean basin and the two major modes of natural climate variability (i.e., El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Madden–JulianExpand
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Abstract Tropical cyclone activity has long been understood to respond to changing properties of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environment. In this essay, evidence for changing tropicalExpand
What Has Changed the Proportion of Intense Hurricanes in the Last 30 Years
Abstract The recently reported increase in the proportion of intense hurricanes is considerably larger than those projected by the maximum potential intensity (MPI) theory and the results ofExpand
Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario
Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability toExpand


Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
While Landsea et al. (1996) show that the number of intense Atlantic hurricanes is on the decrease, the trend of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific is found to be just theExpand
Downward trends in the frequency of intense at Atlantic Hurricanes during the past five decades
There is concern that the enhanced greenhouse effect may be affecting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. The North Atlantic basin offers a reliable, long-term record of tropicalExpand
The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate
Tropical cyclones rank with earthquakes as the major geophysical causes of loss of life and property1. It is therefore of practical as well as scientific interest to estimate the changes in tropicalExpand
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Abstract The very limited instrumental record makes extensive analyses of the natural variability of global tropical cyclone activities difficult in most of the tropical cyclone basins. However, inExpand
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The marked increase in land-falling hurricanes in Florida and Japan in 2004 has raised questions about whether global warming is playing a role. In his Perspective, Trenberth explains that theExpand
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years
  • K. Emanuel
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
  • Nature
  • 2005
An index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, is defined and shows that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s, due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. Expand
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO
The influence of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific basin is examined. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), constructed from theExpand
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An index of global tropical cyclone activity (GTCA) is extracted from an interbasin dispersion matrix composed of correlations in the frequency of tropical cyclones among the five principal basins ofExpand
A Look at Global Tropical Cyclone Activity during 1995: Contrasting High Atlantic Activity with Low Activity in Other Basins
Abstract During 1995, there was a near-record number of named tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. This unusual event fueled speculation that it marked a tangible signal of global climateExpand
Influence of the Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Climatology: An Experiment with the JMA Global Model
The influence of the global warming on tropical cyclones has been examined using a high resolution AGCM. Two ten-year integrations were performed with the JMA global model at T106 horizontalExpand