Change point analysis of historical battle deaths

@article{Fagan2020ChangePA,
  title={Change point analysis of historical battle deaths},
  author={Brennen T. Fagan and Marina I. Knight and Niall J. MacKay and A. Jamie Wood},
  journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)},
  year={2020},
  volume={183}
}
It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a ‘long peace’: an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full change point analysis of well‐documented, publicly available battle deaths data sets, using new techniques that enable the robust detection of changes in the statistical properties of such heavy‐tailed data. We first test and calibrate these techniques. We then demonstrate the existence of changes, independent of data presentation, in the early to mid‐19th… 

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