• Corpus ID: 12720091

Causality and Reasoning: The Monty Hall Dilemma

  title={Causality and Reasoning: The Monty Hall Dilemma},
  author={Bruce D. Burns and Mareike Wieth},
In the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) contestants try to choose which of three doors conceals a prize. After selecting a door, one of the other doors is opened by a host who knows where the prize is, but always reveals a dud. Contestants are then asked if they want to stay with their first choice, or switch to the other unopened door? Switching yields a two-thirds chance of winning, but most people have difficulty accepting this answer. Glymour (2001) points out that central to the MHD is a… 
Smarter and Richer?: Executive Processing and the Monty Hall Dilemma
Smarter and Richer?: Executive Processing and the Monty Hall Dilemma Wim De Neys (Wim.Deneys@psy.kuleuven.ac.be) Department of Psychology, K.U.Leuven, Tiensestraat 102 B-3000 Leuven, Belgium
A randomised Monty Hall experiment: The positive effect of conditional frequency feedback
The Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) is a notorious probability problem with a counterintuitive solution. There is a strong tendency to stay with the initial choice, despite the fact that switching doubles
Helping students understand posterior probabilities: research with a digital learning environment on the Monty Hall dilemma
The results showed that receiving explanation about the MHD solution was the most important manipulation to improve understanding, and implications for education in (posterior) probability are discussed.
Why Humans Fail in Solving the Monty Hall Dilemma: A Systematic Review
A systematic review of literature published between January 2000 and February 2018 addressing why humans systematically fail to react optimally to the Monty Hall dilemma or fail to understand it is presented.
Inhibitory control in a notorious brain teaser: the Monty Hall dilemma
The Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) is a counterintuitive probability problem in which participants often use misleading heuristics, such as the equiprobability bias. Finding the optimal solution to the MHD


The Monty Hall Dilemma Donald Granberg
The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) uses two-stage decisions with a host, guest, and a prize behind one of three doors. After the guest makes a choice, the host reveals another door as incorrect. The
A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners
The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser.
The Monty Hall problem is formulated using manipulations in 4 cognitive aspects, namely, natural frequencies, mental models, perspective change, and the less-is-more effect, which led to a significant increase in the proportion of correct answers given by novice participants.
Randomness and inductions from streaks: “Gambler’s fallacy” versus ”hot hand“
This work gave participants information about a streak of events but varied the scenarios in such a way that the mechanism generating the events should vary in how random the participants would judge it to be.
My Brain is Open: The Mathematical Journeys of Paul Erdos.@@@The Man Who Loved Only Numbers: The Story of Paul Erdos and the Search for Mathematical Truth.
For over half a century, in the middle of the night, or in the morning, mathematicians in Budapest or Berkeley, Prague or Sydney, would be summoned by a knock at their front door. There on their
Attributions in the Sports Pages
University of IowaThe present investigation extended the generality of attribution research byexploring several important, issues in a highly involving real-world setting inwhich attributions
Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning
A theory of naive probability is outlined, which explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem, and predicts several phenomena of reasoning about absolute probabilities, including typical biases.
An examination of the alleged role of "fixation" in the solution of several "insight" problems.
SUMMARY A series of experiments were conducted to examine the purported role of fixation in the solution of several insight problems, such as the nine-dot and triangle problems. It has been commonly
Explanation and Cognition
Explanations seem to be a large and natural part of our cognitive lives. As Frank Keil and Robert Wilson write, "When a cognitive activity is so ubiquitous that it is expressed both in a
Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biasses
In the preface the editors introduce the antecedents of their book as three lines of research developed in the 1950s and 1960s: the comparison of clinical and statistical prediction initiated by Paul