Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

@article{Chuine2016CanPM,
  title={Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.},
  author={Isabelle Chuine and Marc Bonhomme and Jean-Michel Legave and I{\~n}aki Garc{\'i}a de Cort{\'a}zar-Atauri and Guillaume Charrier and Andr{\'e} Lacointe and Thierry Am{\'e}glio},
  journal={Global change biology},
  year={2016},
  volume={22 10},
  pages={3444-60}
}
The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed… CONTINUE READING
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