Campaigning and election outcomes in a presidential primary election

  title={Campaigning and election outcomes in a presidential primary election},
  author={Steven Bednar},
  journal={Applied Economics Letters},
  pages={713 - 717}
  • Steven Bednar
  • Published 7 June 2018
  • Economics, Sociology
  • Applied Economics Letters
ABSTRACT This article presents new evidence from the US presidential primary setting on the role campaigning plays in determining election outcomes. Using candidate visits as a measure of campaign intensity, I estimate a discrete choice model of voting using a differentiated products framework where I allow for abstention and create instruments for campaigning based on Democratic Party rules for delegate allocation. On average, a visit by a candidate increases the vote share of this candidate… 



Voter response to congressional campaigns: new techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior

Scholarship on congressional elections typically analyzes either the sum or the division of the major party vote at the district level. Our main innovation is to model the votes received by each

An analysis of the 2006 congressional elections: does campaign spending matter?

The results of research on the effects of political campaign expenditures on congressional elections are somewhat mixed although most suggest that incumbent campaign spending has a minimal to no

Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries

This paper investigates social learning in sequential voting systems. In the econometric model, candidates experience momentum effects when their performance in early states exceeds expectations. The

The Role of Candidate Spending in Presidential Nomination Campaigns

One of the central questions about American presidential nominations concerns the effects of candidate spending on the outcomes of primaries and caucuses. This issue lies at the heart of normative

Some talk: Money in politics. A (partial) review of the literature

The financing of political campaigns is an area of active scholarly study. I review some of the recent literature and discuss important methodological issues that arise in empirical research on

Get Out the Vote!: How to Increase Voter Turnout

Get Out the Vote! Is a practical guide for anyone trying to mobilize voters or organize at the grass roots. Unlike authors of other campaign advice books, Donald Green and Alan Gerber root their work

Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation

This article considers the problem of "supply-and-demand" analysis on a cross section of oligopoly markets with differentiated products. The primary methodology is to assume that demand can be

Candidate strategies in primaries and general elections with candidates of heterogeneous quality

Some Talk: Money in Politics

  • A (Partial) Review of the Literature.” Public Choice 124 (1– 2): 135–156. doi:10.1007/s11127-005-4750-3.
  • 2005