Calling Recessions in Real Time *

  title={Calling Recessions in Real Time *},
  author={James D. Hamilton},
This paper surveys efforts to automate the dating of business cycle turning points. Doing this on a real time, out-of-sample basis is a bigger challenge than many academics might presume due to factors such as data revisions and changes in economic relationships over time. The paper stresses the value of both simulated real-time analysis— looking at what the inference of a proposed model would have been using data as they were actually released at the time— and actual real-time analysis, in… CONTINUE READING
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